Data Vault Reports

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. This past week saw positioning turn more short across crude oil and refined product futures. CTA positioning in Brent and WTI futures fell by 9.80% and 3.65%, respectively, to around -50k and -40k lots on 16 Sep – testing previous “max short” levels for both contracts. At this level, CTAs are at a prime spot to retrace upwards from this extreme positioning. Similarly, we saw CTA positions in gasoil and heating oil decline by 9.85% and 7.90% w/w to -44k lots and -42k lots on 16 Sep. Finally, RBOB futures saw CTA positioning decline by 9.8% to nearly -50k lots, just shy of the eight-year low of -54.5k lots.

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. This past week continued to see net positioning grow shorter in crude and oil products. Brent futures saw net positioning decline by 106% w.w to -45.6mb on 09 Sep, while net positioning in WTI futures declined by 124% to 38.4mb on 09 Sep – the lowest net positioning has been for the benchmark crude futures YTD.

The recent futures rally did not garner a significant increase in CTA net positions with the bullish momentum short-lived. Net positions peaked at -108k lots, which was lower than the previous peak of -74k lots on 16 Aug. Both increases began from -150k lots. For the individual products, RBOB futures is the most bearish at -32.9k lots, while WTI futures is the least bearish at -16.9k lots. 

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Total net positioning fell to its lows on 7 August down to -150k lots which was the lowest level since the beginning of June, during the post-OPEC meeting sell-off. With sentiment improving and bearish positioning becoming overcrowded, net positioning has rebounded since, rising to -113k lots by 12 August.