Naphtha serves as a versatile feedstock for the petrochemical industry, crucial in producing plastics, synthetic fibers, and various chemicals that contribute significantly to manufacturing and industrial processes.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As the market reacts to a bullish Brent reaching its highest value since October 2023, see all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As Red Sea tensions re-intensify and Ukraine launch a wave of drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, potential value opens up across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As we leave February in the past and April rolls to the prompt, opportunities are arising across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
Despite the geopolitical risk premia buoying up the naphtha E/W, we recommended shorting the Mar E/W in our Feb 13 naphtha report. Find out more about the logic behind this trade in our new case study.
Amid Middle Eastern tensions getting more priced in day on day, the possibility for reversals across the barrel could be on the horizon? See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
Amid a still-raging conflict and prompt oil in high demand, crude technical indicators were seen in overbought territory, but will the contracts hold strength in the near future? See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As the Red Sea conflict re-intensified over the weekend, geographical arbitrages went anywhere but sideways. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
A year review of how fluctuating trends in oil derivatives compare to the performance of some Premier League football clubs in 2023.
As the oil market settled into its first week of 2024, so did the derivative contracts. Trading volumes returned, whilst the geopolitical risk premium surrounding attacks in the Red Sea faded. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of
The freshest trade ideas of 2024 – This week’s edition includes a review of our PnL from December 2023 alongside previous months’ PnL from 2023.
Last week we saw the naphtha EW roof, fuelled by the skyrocketing TC5 freight rate (which passes through the Bab al-Mandab strait, the bottleneck of the Red Sea). Turmoil in the Red Sea has allowed for the TC5 freight rate
Houthi militant attacks on commercial vessels voyaging the red sea was a hot topic in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, with freight rates rallying, gasoil E/W sinking and LST/FEI stagnating.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a stronger afternoon, rising almost $1/bbl from $73.46/bbl at 12:00 GMT to highs of $74.33/bbl at 16:45 GMT. The EIA announced a second consecutive crude inventory draw, with stocks
This week’s COT follows the OPEC+ meeting announcing underwhelming cuts, amounting to a sheep in wolf’s clothing.
This week’s COT report tackles the ongoing market behaviour, with OPEC+ postponing their next meeting and the EIA announcing another build of almost 10mbbls for US crude inventories.
Crude: CFDs are riding the long wave, but how high are we expecting this tide to go?
Fuel – Dec 0.5 Barge Crack: strutting its stuff, but brace yourself for a price reversal – it’s the rollercoaster you never asked for!
Distillates – To quote Ned Stark, winter is coming (for Japan) – giving Regrade a bit of an upgrade
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract was supported this afternoon, moving up more than $1 from $73.80/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $75.05/bbl at 17:35 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront as Ukraine’s ex-military Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny stated “the Third World War has begun” today, speaking at the Ukrainska Pravda’s UP100 award ceremony. In the news, Gunvor has undertaken a temporary economic shutdown of its Rotterdam refinery, with a capacity of less than 80kb/d, due to a “lack of prompt availability of commercially viable feedstock”. Closure will be effective as of 25 Nov according to Bloomberg. In other news, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field is now producing 10,000 tonnes per day less than planned after repairs, KazMunayGas CEO Askhat Khasenov said. Finally, Russia’s Lukoil is restoring operations of its catalytic cracker complex at their NORSI oil refinery, after breaking down on 13 Nov. NORSI refines about 16 million tons of crude per year, or 5.8% of Russia’s total refined crude, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.20/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to just over $74.80/bbl at 08:15 GMT. We saw a decline to $74.18/bbl by 09:15 GMT, however, recovered to around $74.40/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated today as markets continue to focus on rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. In the news today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at a meeting with OPEC that Russia’s energy market is under significant pressure and they will continue to develop cooperation with OPEC countries, according to a Reuters report. Meanwhile, Russia is estimated to have supplied North Korea with more than 1mb of oil since March this year, according to satellite imagery analysis from the Open Source Centre. In other news, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated he would invite Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to visit Hungary, guaranteeing that the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Netanyahu would “not be observed”. Finally, Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami has issued an order to launch a series of new and advanced centrifuges, in response to an IAEA resolution on 21 Nov condemning Tehran’s nuclear cooperation and transparency. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.52/bbl and $1.70/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined from an intraday peak of $74.37/bbl at 12:30 GMT down to $73.55/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, China is projected to import around 11.4mb/d of crude oil in November, the highest volumes since August imports of 11.56mb/d, according to Reuters citing tanker-tracking and port data by LSEG and Kpler. In other news, Russian refineries are likely to reduce or keep their crude throughputs unchanged in the coming weeks as the gasoline export ban, persistent rail delays, and increases in excise taxes continue to hurt margins, as per S&P Global. Finally, the ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu, his former defence chief Yoav Gallant, and a Hamas leader, Ibrahim al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict. According to a Financial Times report, Israel stated in August that Ibrahim al-Masri was killed in an airstrike in Gaza a month earlier. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.38/bbl, respectively.
This week has seen a battle between bullish and bearish forces, kicking off with a focus on poor Chinese oil demand as China’s refinery run rates fell for the seventh month in a row, down 4.6% y/y. Moreover, China’s VAT rebate reduction stoked fears of lower clean oil product exports for 2025. This initial bearish momentum was compounded by waning geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with Hezbollah agreeing to a US proposal for a ceasefire and ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanon now firmly priced in….
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, increasing from $73.25/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $73.95/bbl at 10:55 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical risk was elevated as Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at the southern city of Dnipro, Ukraine for the first time since the start of the conflict in 2022, according to Financial Times. In the news today, US President-elect Donald Trump intends to revive the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office. The 1,200-mile-long pipeline was supposed to carry some 800kb/d of Canadian heavy crude to US refineries. In other news, Exxon has decided to pull out of an exploration block offshore Suriname and transfer its 50% stake to Petronas, as stated by Suriname state-owned company Staatsolie. Finally, Exxon, Hess, and CNOOC plan to add a fourth production vessel in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana, according to Hess Corp.’s CEO quoted by Reuters. The new facility is expected to add 250kb/d to the group’s output capacity by 2026. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.35/bbl and $1.29/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon after initial strength, moving from $73.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.93/bbl at 14:00 GMT, before falling to $72.90/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fell to the $73/bbl support level just after 15:30 GMT today amid the release of EIA data, which showed a build of 545kb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, Ukraine has fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia, a day after using the US ATACMS, as per Reuters. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has purchased its first shipment of US oil after a hiatus of three months, according to a Bloomberg report. The plant purchased about 2mb of WTI Midland from Chevron, due to be delivered next month to the refinery near Lagos. Finally, the Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has asked Iranian authorities to stop trucks carrying “oil, black oil and other petroleum products” through the border crossing areas in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region unless exports are licensed by SOMO, according to a 12 November letter seen by Argus. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $1.11/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract rose this morning from $73.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to a high of $73.92/bbl at 09:20 GMT, before falling back down to $73.50/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). This morning, a Reuters report citing Kpler vessel-tracking data showed that China’s crude imports are on track to end November at or close to record highs, however, no exact figure was specified. Meanwhile, markets forecast a 0.8mb in US crude oil inventories, with EIA data due to be released at 15:30 GMT today for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, around 10,900 North Korean troops have been deployed to the Kursk region as part of Russia’s airborne unit and marines, in addition to shipping arms for the war in Ukraine, according to a South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun citing the National Intelligence Service. In other news, the acting Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Kamal Mohammad Salih, stated that Kurdistan’s oil exports will resume at the beginning of 2025 with barrel extraction costs set at $16, as per an article by Kurdistan24. This followed an agreement between the KRG and the central Iraqi government on a new production-sharing framework. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.05/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon from $72.95/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.35/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude prices were volatile this afternoon, rising to $73.85/bbl at 15:25 GMT and steeply selling off to $72.85/bbl by 15:30 GMT, amid news that Iran agreed to stop producing near bomb-grade uranium, according to Bloomberg. Prices recovered amid ongoing concerns regarding North Sea production outages and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Russian crude oil shipments dipped to a two-month low in the four weeks to 17 November, as loading from Russia’s Western ports decreased, as per tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is looking to buy WTI Midland for December arrival with a cargo size of 1-2mb, to be delivered to the Lekki plant near Lagos. In addition, data by Vortexa and Kpler revealed that a tanker has hauled more than 300kb of gasoline from the Dangote plant to waters of Togo, a potential sign that more volume could enter regional markets. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.25/bbl and $1.00/bbl, respectively.
The naphtha market has struggled over the past two weeks, with poor performance observed across both European and Asian complexes. We saw flows primarily skewed towards the sell-side, with trade houses and refiners being key sellers in the NWE crack and the E/W naphtha differential. However, a surge in trade house buying activity in the front-month NWE spread has emerged, despite recent weakness. It remains to be seen if this buying will persist and whether it can provide much-needed support for prompt NWE naphtha in the coming weeks. Adding to this dynamic, the second half of 2024 brings anticipated cracker closures in Europe and startups in China, suggesting weaker demand in the West as demand potentially strengthens in the East.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, decreasing from $73.35/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $72.70/bbl at 09:30 GMT, before recovering slightly to $73.10/bbl at 11:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices dipped this morning as Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a US ceasefire proposal, requiring Hezbollah to have no armed presence in the area between the Lebanese-Israeli border and the Litani River. Furthermore, production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup is back online after an onshore power outage, with Johan Sverdrup reportedly operating at two-thirds of its 755kb/d capacity, as per Reuters. In the news today, Ukraine carried out their first strike in a border region within Russian territory using a US missile, according to a Bloomberg report. This Ukrainian attack utilised American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), manufactured by Lockheed Martin, with a range of about 300km. In other news, India’s oil products demand growth in October saw an almost 3% rise y/y as monsoon season ended, a trend that is set to continue in November due to higher vehicle sales during the festival period and agricultural demand, according to S&P Global. Meanwhile, Petrobras aims to boost spending on new oil drilling by almost 9% to $111 billion in their 2025-2029 plan, reported by Bloomberg. The plan awaits approval from Petrobras’ board of directors and is scheduled to be released on 21 Nov. Finally, after the EU and the UK imposed sanctions on Iran yesterday for allegedly sending UAVs and missiles to Russia, including freezing the assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL), Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmail Baghaei has condemned the sanctions as affecting the “fundamental rights and interests of Iranians”. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $1.09/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent Futures rallied this afternoon, rising from $71.44/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $73.27/bbl by 16:20 GMT before encountering resistance and retracing slightly to $73/bbl as of 17:15 GMT. In headlines, news of a power outage halting output at Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe’s largest, with a capacity of 750 kb/d has emerged, contributing to the rally in flat price. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose by 80 kb/d in September to 5.75 mb/d, the highest in three months, as direct crude burning for power generation fell sharply (-296 kb/d to 518 kb/d) with the end of the summer peak. Oil production dipped slightly by 17 kb/d to 8.98 mb/d, while refinery runs hit a four-month high of 2.756 mb/d, up by 35 kb/d, according to JODI data. In other news, global natural gas demand rose by 6.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-over-year in September, with production increasing by 7.65 bcm, driven by Russia, the U.S., Nigeria, Norway, Canada, and Azerbaijan, according to JODI’s latest data. Inventories reached a record 251 bcm, 12.6 bcm above the five-year average, after rising by 9.9 bcm in September as countries stockpiled ahead of winter. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $1.09/bbl, respectively.
After selling-off on Friday afternoon, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading at $71.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT and rising to $71.55/bbl around 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical risk has been elevated with US President Biden now allowing Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, and Ukraine expected to launch its first long-range attack in the coming days, as per Reuters. In the news today, China’s crude oil surplus shrank from 930kb/d in September to 500kb/d in October, according to data compiled by Reuters. Meanwhile, China’s gasoline exports were at 180kb/d in October, their lowest level since April and down 13% y/y, as per Bloomberg. In other news, Donald Trump has nominated Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, to lead the US Department of Energy during his administration. Wright previously stated in a 2022 Bloomberg interview that “three decades from now the vast majority of energy will come from hydrocarbons”. Finally, a Bloomberg poll showed that economists expect Germany’s GDP to contract by 0.1% in 2024, after a 0.3% fall in 2023. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $0.93/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon from $72.35/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.00/bbl at 18:00 GMT (time of writing). We have seen bearish sentiment in Brent crude while China oil demand remains weak and Middle East ceasefire talks develop, with senior Iranian official Ali Larjani stating today that Iran backs any decision taken by Lebanon in securing a peace deal with Israel. In the news today, at least three Russian refineries, Tuapse, Ilsky and Novoshakhtinsky, have halted processing or cut runs due to heavy losses, according to Reuters, with these facilities struggling amid export curbs, high borrowing costs, and Ukrainian drone attacks. In other news, Sovcomflot reported a 22.2% y/y drop in nine-month revenue to $1.22 billion, claiming that the Western sanctions on Russian oil tankers limited its financial performance. Finally, according to a Bloomberg report, the selling pace of Angolan oil for December-loading is slower than usual, with about a third of the shipments still seeking buyers. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $0.94/bbl, respectively.
After coming off overnight from $72.60/bbl to lows of $71.40/bbl, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract recovered slightly this morning, trading at $71.63/bbl at 07:00 GMT and moving up to $71.80/bbl around 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were volatile as poor Chinese demand continued to weigh on market sentiment, with prices falling to a low of $71.37/bbl at 08:00 GMT. In the news today, refinery run rates in China fell for the seventh month in a row from 14.3mb/d in September to 14.02mb/d in October, decreasing 4.6% y/y, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics quoted by Reuters. In other news, the US State Department announced today that the US would impose sanctions on 26 companies, individuals, and vessels associated with Al-Qatirji Co., a Syrian business alleged to be facilitating the sale of Iranian oil to Syria, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights. Finally, ExxonMobil has announced that it has reached 500mb of oil produced from Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, just five years after starting production. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $1.08/bbl, respectively.
A bafflingly coherent Biden skipped the COP29 to have an ecstatic lunch/photo op with Trump in the White House, and with all the big liberal names missing the conference, the only real news came from a righteous speech from Azerbaijan president Ilham Aliyev, who argued crude oil is a “gift from God”. Who are we to argue? It’s been a week since the election and Brent saw an unremarkable weekly downtrend as other assets are soaring. Bitcoin is at an all-time high, and the Dow Jones is still extremely strong. Net positioning from money managers in Brent crept up in the week to 5 Nov, likely due to risk-averse shorts taking profit. Outside of the States, China’s trade surplus is on track to hit a record of almost $1 trillion and German industry saw the worst slump in orders since ’09. It seems with the presidential election over and the OPEC+ barrels’ return pushed back the market is struggling to look away from economic weakness.
After initial strength this afternoon, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw weakness this afternoon, moving from $72.45/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.20/bbl 14:20 GMT down to $72.05/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). EIA data released today at 16:00 GMT for the week to 8 Nov showed a build of 2.09mb in US crude oil inventories, with US gasoline inventories falling to their lowest levels since Nov 2022. In the news today, according to a Reuters report, a senior Lebanese official Ali Hassan Khalil said Lebanon was ready to implement UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Channel 12 has reported that a response from Lebanon to a ceasefire proposal sent to Beirut from the US could come within the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister, told Reuters “we are at a point that we are closer to an arrangement than we have been since the start of the war”. In other news, Norway’s oil investment has hit an all-time high, estimated at $22.9 billion for this year compared to the previous record of $20.4 billion in 2014, Statistics Norway stated in its Q4’24 survey of companies’ investment plans. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.30/bbl and $1.14/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent Futures contract was volatile but saw strength this morning, increasing from $71.85/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.55/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Prices reached $72.45/bbl at 09:05 GMT but quickly fell to $72.00 at 09:20 GMT before recovering. In the news today, Libyan oil output is under threat amid protests in response to the kidnapping of a senior intelligence officer Mustafa al-Whayshi. According to Africanews, the protesters blame the Tripoli government for this incident and have shut down oil distribution valves which connect the Sharara and El Feel oilfields to a refinery in Zawya, a facility with a processing capacity of 350kb/d. In other news, TotalEnergies has awarded engineering contracts worth at least $3 billion as part of its fast-track development of Suriname’s first offshore project, according to Reuters. This included a contract with French firm TechnipEnergies for $1.1 billion to build a floating production storage and offloading vessel, projected to startup in 2028 with an expected oil output of 220kb/d and total crude oil capacity of 2mb. Finally, a Bloomberg report has shown that India’s trade deficit widened in October significantly to $27.1 billion, compared to a survey forecast of $22 billion. Imports grew 3.9% in October y/y while exports rose by 17.3%. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.33/bbl and $1.22/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract sold-off mid-afternoon from $72.20/bbl at 13:30 GMT down to $70.80/bbl at 15:00 GMT, however, made a recovery to $72.35/bbl at 18:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude prices saw pressure amid Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad’s statement that Iran has taken measures to sustain oil production and exports in preparation for potential Trump sanctions, claiming “there is no reason to be concerned”. Meanwhile, 13 Nov’s EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that India could account for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally in 2024 and 2025, with withdrawals from global oil inventories expected to increase amid ongoing geopolitical risk and OPEC+ production cuts. In the news today, the Mexican government is expected to unveil a draft for its 2025 budget later this week, in which $6 billion from the budget could be allocated to support the debt obligations of state oil giant Pemex, according to a Bloomberg report. Pemex’s total debt sits at almost $100 billion, with around $9 billion in debt maturing next year. In other news, the Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev said it could be possible to lift the gasoline export ban, currently in force until the end of the year, now that there is stability in domestic fuel supply. Finally, in macroeconomic news, the release of US CPI data at 13:30 GMT today showed an increase to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, in line with market expectations. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.35/bbl and $1.19/bbl, respectively.
After trading rangebound overnight, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, moving from $72.00/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.45 at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Financial Times has revealed that Russia’s energy minister Sergei Tsivilev attempted to combine the country’s oil majors, involving the nationalisation of Lukoil and tightening control over Rosneft and Gazprom. Tsivilev introduced this ambitious idea during his initial meeting with President Vladimir Putin last month, but Putin has yet to greenlight his plan. In other news, Japan Petroleum Exploration (Japex) is looking to invest in the US tight oil and gas sector, with the aim of becoming an operator, according to Japex Executive Officer Yutaka Nishimura. Today, Japex reported a 24% y/y drop in net profit to $136 million for the April to September period, largely due to the yen’s rise against the US dollar, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s biggest oil field Tengiz, operated by US major Chevron, has reduced oil output by around 21% on average since 26 Oct to 496kb/d, industry sources told Reuters. Finally, China has announced tax cuts from the current 3% to 1% for first and second home buyers, as part of their fiscal policy measures to boost the ailing property market. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.25/bbl and $0.92/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract ultimately weakened amid volatility this afternoon, trading from $72.30/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $72.80/bbl at 14:30 GMT and falling to $71.60/bbl by 16:20 GMT, before recovering to $72.10/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fluctuated this afternoon as the market reacted to the release of the November OPEC monthly oil market report for October. In the news today, OPEC’s monthly report showed that the return of Libyan oil production to full capacity raised total OPEC crude oil output to an average 26.53mb/d last month, a 466kb/d increase since September. Output rose mainly in Libya, Nigeria, and Congo while production in Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait saw the largest decrease in October. OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.82mb/d this year, down by 107kb/d from last month’s report. In other news, Indian Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told Reuters that India aims to increase the capacity of existing refineries and become a regional refining hub to other countries. According to Reuters, Indian Oil Corp expects to complete the expansion of its Panipat and Gujurat refineries by December 2025, adding over 14 million tons per annum. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.23/bbl and $0.92/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, moving from around $71.70/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.30/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Israel has failed to meet a series of US aid demands to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. A letter from the US on 13 Oct stipulated that Israel must take steps to improve the aid situation within 30 days and if not could face restrictions on US military aid, as per Reuters. In other news, in an official company statement, Rosneft has denied any plan to merge Russia’s largest oil companies into one entity, claiming “the alleged intentions [have] nothing to do with reality” and do not follow “any reasonable business logic”. Finally, Exxon’s Darren Woods has urged US president Trump not to leave the Paris Agreement on climate change, saying that it would create “a lot of uncertainty” and be counterproductive as administrations change. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.24/bbl and $0.82/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract continued to weaken this afternoon from $72.85/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.80/bbl at 17:55 GMT (time of writing). This afternoon, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar in Jerusalem has stated there was a “certain progress” in ceasefire talks with Hezbollah. In the news today, Saudi Arabia is projected to deliver 36.5mb of crude to China in December, reduced from an expected 37.5mb for November amid weak Chinese oil demand, according to trade data compiled by Reuters. December would mark the second consecutive month of lower Saudi deliveries to China. In other news, India has become the EU’s largest fuel exporter this year by taking advantage of a refining loophole, as reported by Finland’s Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). This loophole allows non-Russian countries to process crude oil without restrictions on its origin, despite Western sanctions. Between Q1 and Q3’24, this allowed the Jamnagar, Vadinar, and new Mangalore refinery to export 58% more oil products to the EU y/y, while India was the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels following China in October. Finally, US national gasoline prices have fallen to a 3-year low today at $3.03/gal, the lowest since May 2021. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.20/bbl and $0.77/bbl, respectively.
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The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this morning, trading at $73.95/bbl at 07:00 GMT and selling off from $74.05/bbl at 09:10 GMT to $72.90/bbl at 10:20 GMT, inching down further to $72.80/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices sold off as the market continues to react to weakening Chinese oil demand and the declining risk of Hurricane Rafael to US Gulf Coast oil infrastructure. In the news today, Chinese customs data showed that China’s crude imports were at 10.53mb in October, a decrease of 8.7% y/y and down from 11.07mb in September, according to Reuters. In other news, the Syrian state news agency SANA made initial reports of an Israeli attack in Homs’ southern countryside in central Syria, with Israel allegedly targeting an aid gathering centre for displaced Lebanese citizens. Finally, Russia is considering a merger of Rosneft, Gazprom, and Lukoil, as per the Wall Street Journal. This would entail Rosneft absorbing the two smaller companies, resulting in the world’s second-largest oil company after Saudi Aramco and a combined capacity of almost 7.5mb/d. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.24/bbl and $0.84/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened further this afternoon, trading at around $74.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT and selling-off from $74.85/bbl at 14:10 GMT down to $73.95/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fell as Hurricane Rafael is forecast to weaken and move away from the US Gulf Coast oilfields in coming days, the US National Hurricane Center said. In the news today, Iran’s oil loadings fell from nearly 1.83mb/d in September to 1.48mb/d last month, marking a daily decline of 350kb/d, according to Kpler Senior Analyst Homayoun Falakshahi. The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Trump plans to renew his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran, drastically increasing sanctions in order to hamper Tehran’s ability to support its proxies in the Middle East. In other news, Iraq’s parliament is due to discuss a new bill on oil exports, a Kurdish MP Sabah Subhi told Kurdistan24. Subhi was optimistic an agreement between Iraq and Kurdistan could be reached, however, highlighted growing security concerns surrounding potential supply disruption in Iraq, claiming any instability would be “catastrophic”. Finally, the Israeli military it is planning to reopen the Kissufim crossing into central Gaza to increase flow of aid into the strip, amid growing pressure from aid agencies. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.30/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this morning from $75.10/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $74.50/bbl at 10:25 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices weakened amid the unveiling of China’s $1.4 trillion stimulus package. Chinese officials neglected to announce additional measures to boost domestic demand, potentially disappointing markets according to a Financial Times report. In the news today, Petrobras reported a 22% increase in its Q3’24 net profit at $5.7 billion. This was partly due to several operational milestones including the start of oil production at Petrobras’ Mero-3 platform with a capacity of 180kb/d and at their FPSO Maria Quiteria with a capacity of 100kb/d. In other news, Citigroup claimed a Trump presidency may be net bearish for crude prices on higher domestic production and tariffs. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered said US producers won’t necessarily heed Trump’s call for more drilling. Finally, the UN Human Rights Office stated that women and children account for nearly 70% of fatalities it has verified in the Gaza war thus far, condemning what it called a systematic violation of the fundamental principles of international humanitarian law, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.27/bbl, respectively.
It was a historic week for the US as someone had to change Grover Cleveland’s Wikipedia from ‘only’ to ‘first’. Landslide results, comparable to 1964, point to a similarly anxious America, with Google searches for ‘WW3’ up 15% in the week and worryingly, searches for ‘who is running for president’ seeing a 200% weekly increase. LBJ’s 1964 “We must love each other, or we must die” may be too sentimental and ‘nineteen sixties’ for Trump 2.0, but “I’m going to stop wars” and “let’s stop killing people”, but it inspires some hope that the geopolitical risk volatilities may lessen. The market has a few months of processing time to check the effects of tariffs, regulations, sanctions, and drill baby drill, but the initial market reaction has been a bit measured. The possible sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and the potential relief from the Russian sanctions have been the supply conversation points. Still, we’re talking long-term here, and the immediate impact on the flat price was quickly reversed by some offshore drilling evacuation. There are a few months to prepare before the official handover for Nancy Pelosi to clean out her portfolio of anything green whilst the Dems figure out who to point the finger at.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract rallied from $74.25/bbl at 12:00 GMT today up to $75.70/bbl just after 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices rose amid expectations of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut to be announced at 19:00 GMT tonight. Earlier today, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 bps from 5% to 4.75%. In the news today, Hezbollah lawmaker Ibrahim al-Moussawi said that the Lebanese group welcomes any effort to stop the conflict but does not pin hopes for a ceasefire on any particular US administration, as stated in a Reuters report. In other news, China’s crude oil imports remain low in October at 10.53mb/d (-9% y/y), marking the sixth straight month where oil imports have fallen compared to the same months in 2023, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. This follows reduced capacity at PetroChina’s largest refinery in Dalian and weak demand from independent Chinese refiners. Finally, Ghana’s crude oil output has increased by 10.7% y/y in the first six months of 2024, at 24.9mb for June 2024, the country’s Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) reported. The increase was primarily driven by Tullow Oil’s Jubilee South East (JSE) project, which commenced production in late 2023, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.37/bbl and $1.44/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw consistent strength this afternoon, ultimately increasing from $74.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $75.30/bbl at 17:40 GMT. Crude oil prices rallied from around $73.40/bbl at 13:50 GMT up to $75.92/bbl just after 16:00 GMT as the market reacted to increasing threats to US Gulf Coast oil production from Hurricane Rafael and US President Trump’s election victory. A build of nearly 2.15mb compared to an expected 1.8mb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 01 Nov, announced in EIA data released at 15:30 GMT, led to a 40c drop to $74.95/bbl but otherwise had little effect as Brent continued to strengthen. In the news today, Russian Energy Ministry data showed the nation’s crude oil production in October was at 8.97mb, up 3kb/d from September and just 5kb/d above the OPEC+ quota for the month. In other news, Iraq’s oil exports were recorded at 3.3mb/d in October, according to Oil Ministry figures, with the government continuing to restrain output in response to pressure from OPEC+. Finally, India’s oil demand rose by 2.9% y/y in October to nearly 20.04 million metric tons, with gasoline, LPG, and aviation turbine fuel accounting for the largest increases in demand, according to PPAC reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.52/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
The naphtha market has been resilient and strong into the end of October with the dips bought into well and the strong gasnaph selling flows supporting the complex further. It will be interesting to see how this strength will be maintained in November. Fundamentally, we are seeing the focus on the crackers, which are due to start up in the New Year, but will this sustain buying for another month? There have been good spread bids into the end of October, but this has been less apparent in November.
Jan’25 Brent futures flat price saw further support this afternoon, increasing from $75.35/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $75.95/bbl at 17:30 GMT, before falling to $75.50/bbl around 18:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were supported amid potential short covering and rebalancing of portfolios ahead of the US election, in addition to a sustained market reaction to OPEC delaying their December production hike until January. In the news today, Iranian crude oil supplied to China has reached its most expensive price in five years, with the discount of Iran Light crude to ICE Brent narrowing to below $4/bbl from between $5-6/bbl earlier this year, according to Reuters. This came as Iran’s cargo loadings slumped last month amid concerns that Israel would target Iranian energy facilities in their retaliatory missile attack.In other news, Marathon plans to operate its 13 refineries at 90% of combined capacity in Q4’24, amounting to production of 2.95mb/d, as per Reuters. Furthermore, Marathon’s Q3’24 profit beat Wall Street estimates on better-than-expected refining throughput of 3mb/d compared to the forecasted 2.84mb/d. Finally, state-run Oil India has missed its Q2’24 profit targets on lower crude prices and weak fuel demand, totalling around $218 million in comparison to analysts’ expectations of $222 million. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.40/bbl and $1.59/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading from $75.05/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $75.39/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have been supported amid potential for Hurricane Rafael to disrupt 4mb/d of oil production in the US Gulf Coast, according to Reuters. In the news today, Russian oil and gas revenue has jumped 57% m/m in October to $12.35 billion, as per Russian finance ministry data. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report shows Russia’s seaborne crude weekly exports for the week to 3 Nov dropped by 530kb/d, the biggest decline since early June. This came as Russia made no shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk and only one shipment from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. In other news, France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot is expected travel to Israel on Wednesday to work towards a diplomatic end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Barrot stated France would work with whoever wins the US election and that the US “plays an essential role in ending the Israeli-Arab conflict”. Finally, trading firms are projected to deliver an unusually large volume of about 5mb of Middle East crude oil to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) this month, as per Reuters. Vitol are to deliver the most crude to INE, about 3mb, including about 840kb of Abu Dhabi Murban crude and 2mb of Iraqi Basra Medium crude. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.43/bbl and $1.65/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract initially saw weakness this afternoon, trading from $75.25/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $74.30/bbl around 15:50 GMT, before recovering to $75.15/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Despite profit-taking flows, prices overall have been supported following the OPEC+ decision to delay a production hike for another month. In the news today, according to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output was up 195kb/d in October m/m, with Libya posting the largest gain of up to 400kb/d. Crude oil production in Venezuela reached 860kb/d, the highest since at least 2020, while Iraq cut crude oil output by 120kb/d, amid lower exports and domestic consumption. In other news, developing Tropical Storm Rafael is projected to strengthen into a hurricane late Tuesday as it moves northwest from the Caribbean towards offshore oil production areas in the Gulf of Mexico, as per the US National Hurricane Center. Finally, according to Argus Media, Asia-Pacific refiners have increased their intake of US light sweet WTI for November loading, buying around 1.3mb/d of WTI loading compared to roughly 800kb/d in October and could remain keen buyers in December. Meanwhile, European demand for crude is expected to rebound in December following the end of autumn refinery maintenance, with Ekofisk adding around 60c/bbl relative to WTI since mid-October. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.57/bbl, respectively.
