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The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, increasing from $73.25/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $73.95/bbl at 10:55 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical risk was elevated as Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile at the southern city of Dnipro, Ukraine for the first time since the start of the conflict in 2022, according to Financial Times. In the news today, US President-elect Donald Trump intends to revive the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day in office. The 1,200-mile-long pipeline was supposed to carry some 800kb/d of Canadian heavy crude to US refineries. In other news, Exxon has decided to pull out of an exploration block offshore Suriname and transfer its 50% stake to Petronas, as stated by Suriname state-owned company Staatsolie. Finally, Exxon, Hess, and CNOOC plan to add a fourth production vessel in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana, according to Hess Corp.’s CEO quoted by Reuters. The new facility is expected to add 250kb/d to the group’s output capacity by 2026. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.35/bbl and $1.29/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract rose this morning from $73.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to a high of $73.92/bbl at 09:20 GMT, before falling back down to $73.50/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). This morning, a Reuters report citing Kpler vessel-tracking data showed that China’s crude imports are on track to end November at or close to record highs, however, no exact figure was specified. Meanwhile, markets forecast a 0.8mb in US crude oil inventories, with EIA data due to be released at 15:30 GMT today for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, around 10,900 North Korean troops have been deployed to the Kursk region as part of Russia’s airborne unit and marines, in addition to shipping arms for the war in Ukraine, according to a South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun citing the National Intelligence Service. In other news, the acting Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Kamal Mohammad Salih, stated that Kurdistan’s oil exports will resume at the beginning of 2025 with barrel extraction costs set at $16, as per an article by Kurdistan24. This followed an agreement between the KRG and the central Iraqi government on a new production-sharing framework. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.05/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, decreasing from $73.35/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $72.70/bbl at 09:30 GMT, before recovering slightly to $73.10/bbl at 11:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices dipped this morning as Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a US ceasefire proposal, requiring Hezbollah to have no armed presence in the area between the Lebanese-Israeli border and the Litani River. Furthermore, production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup is back online after an onshore power outage, with Johan Sverdrup reportedly operating at two-thirds of its 755kb/d capacity, as per Reuters. In the news today, Ukraine carried out their first strike in a border region within Russian territory using a US missile, according to a Bloomberg report. This Ukrainian attack utilised American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), manufactured by Lockheed Martin, with a range of about 300km. In other news, India’s oil products demand growth in October saw an almost 3% rise y/y as monsoon season ended, a trend that is set to continue in November due to higher vehicle sales during the festival period and agricultural demand, according to S&P Global. Meanwhile, Petrobras aims to boost spending on new oil drilling by almost 9% to $111 billion in their 2025-2029 plan, reported by Bloomberg. The plan awaits approval from Petrobras’ board of directors and is scheduled to be released on 21 Nov. Finally, after the EU and the UK imposed sanctions on Iran yesterday for allegedly sending UAVs and missiles to Russia, including freezing the assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL), Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmail Baghaei has condemned the sanctions as affecting the “fundamental rights and interests of Iranians”. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $1.09/bbl, respectively.

After selling-off on Friday afternoon, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading at $71.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT and rising to $71.55/bbl around 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical risk has been elevated with US President Biden now allowing Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, and Ukraine expected to launch its first long-range attack in the coming days, as per Reuters. In the news today, China’s crude oil surplus shrank from 930kb/d in September to 500kb/d in October, according to data compiled by Reuters. Meanwhile, China’s gasoline exports were at 180kb/d in October, their lowest level since April and down 13% y/y, as per Bloomberg. In other news, Donald Trump has nominated Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, to lead the US Department of Energy during his administration. Wright previously stated in a 2022 Bloomberg interview that “three decades from now the vast majority of energy will come from hydrocarbons”. Finally, a Bloomberg poll showed that economists expect Germany’s GDP to contract by 0.1% in 2024, after a 0.3% fall in 2023. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $0.93/bbl, respectively.

After coming off overnight from $72.60/bbl to lows of $71.40/bbl, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract recovered slightly this morning, trading at $71.63/bbl at 07:00 GMT and moving up to $71.80/bbl around 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were volatile as poor Chinese demand continued to weigh on market sentiment, with prices falling to a low of $71.37/bbl at 08:00 GMT. In the news today, refinery run rates in China fell for the seventh month in a row from 14.3mb/d in September to 14.02mb/d in October, decreasing 4.6% y/y, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics quoted by Reuters. In other news, the US State Department announced today that the US would impose sanctions on 26 companies, individuals, and vessels associated with Al-Qatirji Co., a Syrian business alleged to be facilitating the sale of Iranian oil to Syria, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights. Finally, ExxonMobil has announced that it has reached 500mb of oil produced from Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, just five years after starting production. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $1.08/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent Futures contract was volatile but saw strength this morning, increasing from $71.85/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.55/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Prices reached $72.45/bbl at 09:05 GMT but quickly fell to $72.00 at 09:20 GMT before recovering. In the news today, Libyan oil output is under threat amid protests in response to the kidnapping of a senior intelligence officer Mustafa al-Whayshi. According to Africanews, the protesters blame the Tripoli government for this incident and have shut down oil distribution valves which connect the Sharara and El Feel oilfields to a refinery in Zawya, a facility with a processing capacity of 350kb/d. In other news, TotalEnergies has awarded engineering contracts worth at least $3 billion as part of its fast-track development of Suriname’s first offshore project, according to Reuters. This included a contract with French firm TechnipEnergies for $1.1 billion to build a floating production storage and offloading vessel, projected to startup in 2028 with an expected oil output of 220kb/d and total crude oil capacity of 2mb. Finally, a Bloomberg report has shown that India’s trade deficit widened in October significantly to $27.1 billion, compared to a survey forecast of $22 billion. Imports grew 3.9% in October y/y while exports rose by 17.3%. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.33/bbl and $1.22/bbl, respectively.

After trading rangebound overnight, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, moving from $72.00/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.45 at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Financial Times has revealed that Russia’s energy minister Sergei Tsivilev attempted to combine the country’s oil majors, involving the nationalisation of Lukoil and tightening control over Rosneft and Gazprom. Tsivilev introduced this ambitious idea during his initial meeting with President Vladimir Putin last month, but Putin has yet to greenlight his plan. In other news, Japan Petroleum Exploration (Japex) is looking to invest in the US tight oil and gas sector, with the aim of becoming an operator, according to Japex Executive Officer Yutaka Nishimura. Today, Japex reported a 24% y/y drop in net profit to $136 million for the April to September period, largely due to the yen’s rise against the US dollar, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s biggest oil field Tengiz, operated by US major Chevron, has reduced oil output by around 21% on average since 26 Oct to 496kb/d, industry sources told Reuters. Finally, China has announced tax cuts from the current 3% to 1% for first and second home buyers, as part of their fiscal policy measures to boost the ailing property market. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.25/bbl and $0.92/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, moving from around $71.70/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.30/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Israel has failed to meet a series of US aid demands to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. A letter from the US on 13 Oct stipulated that Israel must take steps to improve the aid situation within 30 days and if not could face restrictions on US military aid, as per Reuters. In other news, in an official company statement, Rosneft has denied any plan to merge Russia’s largest oil companies into one entity, claiming “the alleged intentions [have] nothing to do with reality” and do not follow “any reasonable business logic”. Finally, Exxon’s Darren Woods has urged US president Trump not to leave the Paris Agreement on climate change, saying that it would create “a lot of uncertainty” and be counterproductive as administrations change. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.24/bbl and $0.82/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this morning, trading at $73.95/bbl at 07:00 GMT and selling off from $74.05/bbl at 09:10 GMT to $72.90/bbl at 10:20 GMT, inching down further to $72.80/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices sold off as the market continues to react to weakening Chinese oil demand and the declining risk of Hurricane Rafael to US Gulf Coast oil infrastructure. In the news today, Chinese customs data showed that China’s crude imports were at 10.53mb in October, a decrease of 8.7% y/y and down from 11.07mb in September, according to Reuters. In other news, the Syrian state news agency SANA made initial reports of an Israeli attack in Homs’ southern countryside in central Syria, with Israel allegedly targeting an aid gathering centre for displaced Lebanese citizens. Finally, Russia is considering a merger of Rosneft, Gazprom, and Lukoil, as per the Wall Street Journal. This would entail Rosneft absorbing the two smaller companies, resulting in the world’s second-largest oil company after Saudi Aramco and a combined capacity of almost 7.5mb/d. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.24/bbl and $0.84/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this morning from $75.10/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $74.50/bbl at 10:25 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices weakened amid the unveiling of China’s $1.4 trillion stimulus package. Chinese officials neglected to announce additional measures to boost domestic demand, potentially disappointing markets according to a Financial Times report. In the news today, Petrobras reported a 22% increase in its Q3’24 net profit at $5.7 billion. This was partly due to several operational milestones including the start of oil production at Petrobras’ Mero-3 platform with a capacity of 180kb/d and at their FPSO Maria Quiteria with a capacity of 100kb/d. In other news, Citigroup claimed a Trump presidency may be net bearish for crude prices on higher domestic production and tariffs. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered said US producers won’t necessarily heed Trump’s call for more drilling. Finally, the UN Human Rights Office stated that women and children account for nearly 70% of fatalities it has verified in the Gaza war thus far, condemning what it called a systematic violation of the fundamental principles of international humanitarian law, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.27/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading from $75.05/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $75.39/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have been supported amid potential for Hurricane Rafael to disrupt 4mb/d of oil production in the US Gulf Coast, according to Reuters. In the news today, Russian oil and gas revenue has jumped 57% m/m in October to $12.35 billion, as per Russian finance ministry data. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report shows Russia’s seaborne crude weekly exports for the week to 3 Nov dropped by 530kb/d, the biggest decline since early June. This came as Russia made no shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk and only one shipment from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. In other news, France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot is expected travel to Israel on Wednesday to work towards a diplomatic end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Barrot stated France would work with whoever wins the US election and that the US “plays an essential role in ending the Israeli-Arab conflict”. Finally, trading firms are projected to deliver an unusually large volume of about 5mb of Middle East crude oil to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) this month, as per Reuters. Vitol are to deliver the most crude to INE, about 3mb, including about 840kb of Abu Dhabi Murban crude and 2mb of Iraqi Basra Medium crude. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.43/bbl and $1.65/bbl, respectively.

After rallying at market open this week from $72.90/bbl on 01 Nov to $74.35/bbl last night, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract showed steady support this morning, climbing from $74.40/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.70/bbl just after 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated amid an OPEC+ decision on Sunday to extend its output cut of 2.2mb/d by another month, initially planning to increase production in December. In the news today, according to a Reuters report, Israel has officially notified the UN that it is cancelling the agreement that regulated relations with the UN relief organization for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) since 1967, fuelling concerns of a worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza. This came as Palestinian medics claimed Israeli airstrikes killed at least 31 people in the Gaza strip on Sunday. In other news, China’s refining output is set to fall to 14.7mb/d this quarter on thin margins and weak demand, in addition to maintaining lower run rates in Q1’25, as per Reuters. Finally, Eni has sold $1 billion worth of upstream offshore assets in Alaska to US private company Hilcorp, planning to raise €8 billion in net proceeds between 2024-2027 to fund the growth of its low-carbon units. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.42/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.05/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.65/bbl at 10:10 GMT, before coming off to around $74.30/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw support amid reports that Iran is preparing a major retaliatory attack on Israel by proxy from Iraq in the coming days, with US officials continuing to work towards an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal in the meantime. In the news today, Israel hit Beirut’s southern suburbs with airstrikes aimed at Hezbollah assets early this morning, in the first such strikes in days targeting the dense urban area. In other news, according to S&P Global, Russia is not planning to lift its gasoline export ban early due to ongoing refinery turnarounds and high retail prices, after Russian officials indicated in September that the ban could be lifted early on the condition of a gasoline surplus. Turnarounds are expected to continue at several Russian refineries into the first half of November, including the Norsi, Ryazan, and Volgograd facilities. Finally, a Ukrainian drone has crashed into an oil depot in Russia’s Stavropol region, reported by a local governor Vladimir Vladimirov on Telegram. This follows yesterday’s drone attack on the Russian region of Bashkortostan, where major oil company Bashneft operates several large refineries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.33/bbl, respectively.