COT Report: Excess Volatility
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Gasoline is a key fuel for automobiles, playing a central role in powering personal and commercial vehicles, underpinning the mobility that fuels economic activities around the world.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent has recovered from sub-$70/bbl, and there has been a sigh of relief in many markets. But are we out of the woods yet?
The oil market saw a full capitulation this week as Brent futures fell below $70/bbl for the first time since December 2021. Gasoil continues to struggle, while gasoline found a wind of strength off the back of Hurricane Francine. Even though trading volumes are down with key traders enjoy the APPEC festivities, the show in oil swaps must go on.
Polarising strength in European gasoline and naphtha continues to define lightends. Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic reversal in the North Sea market, with the physical window seeing substantial selling on 3 Sep due to a variety of players offering WTI Midland.
Polarising strength in European gasoline and naphtha continues to define lightends. Meanwhile, the North Sea and VLSFO have been among the few bright spots in the oil swaps market.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent Futures is not the only contract that is capitulating this week as European gasoline falls at an even faster rate. Meanwhile, the Sing 0.5% marine fuel complex has been one of the few bright spots in the oil swaps market. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Whilst the Oct’24 Brent futures contract recovered back to the $80/bbl level, headwinds remain abound. Freight prices are in freefall, its impact reverberating across the oil swaps market. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead.
Commitment of Traders is a unique report leveraging Onyx proprietary data and methodologies to provide unique speculative market positioning data and flows. Designed for paper traders and risk managers, the report generates actionable insights and provides transparency into an opaque market.
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $79/bbl and an unexpectedly large 3.44mb draw in US gasoline inventories, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $81/bbl and an unexpectedly large 5.57mb draw in US gasoline inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and an unexpectedly large 4.9mb draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise above $87/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
As Brent lingers around the $85/bbl, we’ve seen few large moves. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches the week ahead.
We’ve seen the August Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl, where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $82/bbl and a large, unexpected build in US crude inventories, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price plummet below $77/bbl and the 380 E/W rally again, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen Jul Brent Futures touch $85/bbl and the 380 E/W finally peaked, where will markets head this week?
We continue to see chronic weakness in Dated Brent which may exacerbate with an EIA-announced build in US crude inventories and wonder, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen chronic weakness in North Sea crude and flat IEA and OPEC forecasts, where will markets head this week?
There’s been a 1.4mbbls draw in crude and weak refinery margins, where will markets head this week?
With a 7.2mbbls build in crude and weak refinery margins, in which direction are markets flowing this week?
A recovery in fuel and naphtha, whilst gasoline runs out of steam. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jun Brent futures contract continued to see choppy price action into the afternoon, predominantly oscillating within the range of $85.95/bbl and $86.80/bbl.
As players remain uncertain about wartime risk premia impacting the futures, the volatility appears to have hit oil products in varied ways. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent strengthened to above the $90/bbl mark, products felt the heat. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As the market reacts to a bullish Brent reaching its highest value since October 2023, see all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As Red Sea tensions re-intensify and Ukraine launch a wave of drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, potential value opens up across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As we leave February in the past and April rolls to the prompt, opportunities are arising across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
Jan’25 Brent futures flat price weakened this afternoon, falling from around $71.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT and finding a floor around $70.30/bbl at 15:30 GMT before rising to $70.68/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices faced downward pressure amid persistent concerns over weak Chinese demand, as well as reports of a scheduled meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his ministers to discuss potential resolutions to the conflict in Lebanon, according to Axios. In the news today, an OilChem survey indicated that China plans to reduce fuel exports by 14.2% in November. Total fuel exports are projected at 2.54 million tons, with allocations for gasoil and kerosene down by 28% and 18% compared to October, respectively. In other news, Angola’s Cabinda oil refinery is set to be commissioned between January and February, the CEO of Gemcorp has stated. Meanwhile, the first supplies of fuels are projected to reach local markets between March and April. The greenfield project will refine 30kb/d of Angolan Cabinda crude and supply 5-10% of the country’s needs, according to Reuters. Finally, Phillips 66 plans to operate its refineries between the low to mid 90% range capacity in Q4’24, making for a combined capacity of 1.5mb/d, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $0.83/bbl, respectively.
It was two weeks of retracement for the gasoline complex, with the supply situation improving in the Atlantic Basin. Previously, bullish factors, including supply tightness in the Mediterranean, demand-pull from West Africa (WAF), and US demand, had supported the market. This is now reversing, given the increasing crude output from Libya and some refineries returning from maintenance early. In fact, the US autumn maintenance is expected to be the lowest since 2021, according to…
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $70.90/bbl at 07:00 BST to $71.75/bbl at 10:35 BST (time of writing). Prices saw support this morning amid reports of Chinese power demand growing faster than expected in 2024. In the news today, according to the China Electricity Council’s Q3’24 report, the country now sees 2024 electricity consumption growing by 7% to 9.9 trillion kWh. In its previous report, the group had forecast 6.5% growth to 9.82 trillion kWh. In other news, Israel is maintaining the intensity of its attacks on Gaza, with a Reuters report stating at least 60 Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded in an Israeli strike on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya today. Finally, Reuters reports that Mexico has sent a crude oil cargo of 400kb to Cuba, which is expected to arrive by the end of the week. Cuba is currently experiencing a series of blackouts alongside food and fuel shortages. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.04/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures saw an interesting trend this afternoon as price action initially rose from the $71/bbl level at 13:00 GMT, creating a triple top pattern near $71.90/bbl before falling lower to $71.35/bbl by 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Alongside reports of PetroChina’s plan to shut its largest refinery in 2025, the Jan’25 contract tested the $71.90/bbl level on multiple occasions throughout the afternoon. However, crude oil prices ultimately failed to sustainably stay above this level, amid a removal of some of the geopolitical risk premium previously supporting oil prices. In the news today, state-owned PetroChina is projected to shut its Dalian Petrochemical plant in 2025, which accounts for 410kb/d, or 3%, of the total Chinese refinery output, according to Reuters. In other news, Chinese oil and gas exploration company CNOOC reported a net profit of $5.2 billion for Q3’24, up by 9% y/y from 2023. In the first nine months of 2024, CNOOC made 9 new discoveries and appraised 23 oil and gas-bearing structures. In other news, IndianOil, the biggest refiner in India, has released its Q2’24 results, showing that the company’s net profit fell by 98.6% y/y, partly influenced by low fuel demand in the monsoon season. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $0.92/bbl, respectively.
After selling off overnight to around $72.25/bbl following Israel’s Friday night retaliation against Iran for their 01 Oct attack, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract has seen further weakness this morning, moving from $72.55/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $71.10/bbl at 10:20 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices declined as Israel’s attack left Iranian nuclear and oil infrastructure unscathed, easing fears of a potential supply disruption. In the news today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran will “use all available tools” to respond to the Israeli attack on Iran’s military infrastructure, as per Reuters. In other news, India’s Bharat Petroleum has stated that its Russian oil intake for crude processing has fallen to 34% between July and September this year due to maintenance of units at its Bina and Kochi refineries. The state-run company has a production capacity of about 706kb/d across its three refineries in India, according to a Reuters report. Finally, according to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, Eni and BP have resumed exploration in the Libyan Ghadames Basin, where onshore drilling has been halted since 2014. Meanwhile, Repsol is preparing to restart drilling in the Murzuq Basin, and OMV is to begin operations in the Sirte Basin in the coming weeks. At the time of writing, the front-month (Jan/Feb’25) and six-month (Jan/Jul’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.85/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw consistent support this afternoon, moving from $74.88/bbl at 12:00 BST up to $76.00/bbl shortly before 17:00 BST, before weakening slightly to $75.60/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward pressure this afternoon amid renewed geopolitical risk in the Middle East. In the news, Israeli military strikes across the Gaza Strip have killed at least 72 people since Thursday night, after Israeli forces raided the Kamal Adwan Hospital in the northern Gaza. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economy minister has said the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has displaced more than a fifth of the 5.5 million population, with many fleeing to Syria according to Bloomberg. In other news, due to its increased use of natural gas for power generation, the US is now more dependent than fossil fuel power than China. Fossil fuels had an average share of 62.4% of total electricity output in the US since June, compared to 60.5% of generation between June and September in China, as per Reuters. Finally, according to S&P Global, Portuguese state-owned Galp Energia has begun a second exploration at its Orange Basin block offshore Namibia. The first of four wells, Mopane 1-A, is now known to have been constructed on 23 Oct and may hold as much as 10mb of oil. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.57/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, trading at $75.73/bbl at 07:00 BST and moving up to $76.50/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Price was supported amid intensifying regional conflict in the Middle East and reports of North Korean troops ready to aid Russia in Ukraine. In the news today, Israel has launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the city of Homs, killing one soldier and injuring seven others, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin said today that the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war, in a statement made at a meeting of the BRICS+ group in Russia. In other news, Transocean is in talks to merge with rival offshore drilling contractor Seadrill, looking to capitalize on the boom in deepwater oil exploration, according to Bloomberg. After the announcement, US shares of Seadrill jumped 10% while Transocean shares were up 3.7%. Finally, refiners on the US Gulf Coast have been increasingly turning to Latin American heavy crude, with Mexican state-owned Pemex and Valero Energy both buying Colombian grades, as per Bloomberg. This came as the Trans Mountain line diverted Canadian oil to Asia, with US refiners seeing their usual supply thinning. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.86/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures rose from $73.20/bbl at the start of the week to $76.50/bbl on 24 Oct morning but not without volatility. The benchmark crude futures contract shot up to $76/bbl on 22 Oct before selling off the next day due to an EIA-announced build of nearly 5.5mb in US crude oil inventories. Despite rising again on 24 Oct, prices have fallen to $74.45/bbl as of 15:45 BST (time of writing). The market seems unable to make up its mind about sentiment. Geopolitical risk appears to be waning, but it must not be ignored. At the same time, the market remains squeamish on a bullish China oil demand story due to a lack of clarity regarding fiscal policy. An added driver of market anxiety comes from the much-awaited US Election (in under two weeks now!). 10-year Treasury bond yields surged to multi-month highs this week despite expected rate cuts, as traders bet a Trump presidency could increase inflation and lower bond prices, given the former President’s loovee for the word “tariffs”. This may slow down the Fed’s easing cycle, with the OIS pricing only 23bps of cuts at the next FOMC, potentially impacting risk assets such as oil. This market is frantically seeking a reset button, and only time will tell whether American voters are the antidote we’re all waiting for.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract initially showed strength this afternoon, trading at $74.60/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $75.70/bbl at 15:20 BST, however, sold-off to $74.80/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Dec’24 flat price sold-off shortly after the release of EIA data at 15:30 BST today for the week to 18 Oct, which showed a build of 5.47mb in US crude oil inventories, much higher than the expected draw of 0.7mb. In the news today, US refiners are projected to report lower margins for Q3’24 amid tepid fuel demand and increased global supply, according to Reuters estimates. We saw the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack peak at $16.86/bbl before the release of EIA stats today, before trading down to $16.60/bbl at the time of writing. In other news, Hezbollah has confirmed via Telegram that Hashem Safieddine, a likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike three weeks ago, as per Bloomberg. Finally, Italian insurer Generali has announced it is ending coverage for companies involved in downstream oil and gas operations if they do not meet energy transition requirements. This move is based on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this morning, trading at $75.73/bbl at 07:00 BST and moving up to $76.50/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Price was supported amid intensifying regional conflict in the Middle East and reports of North Korean troops ready to aid Russia in Ukraine. In the news today, Israel has launched strikes on the Syrian capital Damascus and a military site near the city of Homs, killing one soldier and injuring seven others, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin said today that the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war, in a statement made at a meeting of the BRICS+ group in Russia. In other news, Transocean is in talks to merge with rival offshore drilling contractor Seadrill, looking to capitalize on the boom in deepwater oil exploration, according to Bloomberg. After the announcement, US shares of Seadrill jumped 10% while Transocean shares were up 3.7%. Finally, refiners on the US Gulf Coast have been increasingly turning to Latin American heavy crude, with Mexican state-owned Pemex and Valero Energy both buying Colombian grades, as per Bloomberg. This came as the Trans Mountain line diverted Canadian oil to Asia, with US refiners seeing their usual supply thinning. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.86/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract initially showed strength this afternoon, trading at $74.60/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $75.70/bbl at 15:20 BST, however, sold-off to $74.80/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Dec’24 flat price sold-off shortly after the release of EIA data at 15:30 BST today for the week to 18 Oct, which showed a build of 5.47mb in US crude oil inventories, much higher than the expected draw of 0.7mb. In the news today, US refiners are projected to report lower margins for Q3’24 amid tepid fuel demand and increased global supply, according to Reuters estimates. We saw the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack peak at $16.86/bbl before the release of EIA stats today, before trading down to $16.60/bbl at the time of writing. In other news, Hezbollah has confirmed via Telegram that Hashem Safieddine, a likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike three weeks ago, as per Bloomberg. Finally, Italian insurer Generali has announced it is ending coverage for companies involved in downstream oil and gas operations if they do not meet energy transition requirements. This move is based on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, trading at $75.93/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to $75.10/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). After the release of API figures yesterday evening, showing US crude oil stocks rose far above market expectations of 0.3mb up to 1.64mb, price has declined further amid anticipation of EIA data releasing at 15:30 BST today, with the market expecting a 700kb build in US crude inventories. In the news today, Israeli strikes across Gaza have killed 20 people, with Israel stepping up their operation following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israel today to use this opportunity to end the war in Gaza, stating Israel should be looking to bring home remaining Gaza hostages and agree to a ceasefire. In other news, India’s Finance Ministry are considering a proposal to scrap the windfall tax on domestic crude oil production due to falling international crude prices, as per Reuters. Finally, Saudi Arabia’s economy is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2025 partly due to OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in December, a Reuters poll of economists showed. This would be Saudi Arabia’s highest rate of growth in three years, with only 1.3% growth expected for 2024. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.69/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw sustained strength this afternoon, trading at $74.82/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $76.20/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). Price action was on the rise this afternoon as the Chinese Ministry of Commerce lifted its crude oil import quota for 2025 by 6% to 5.14mb/d, as per Reuters. In the news today, the IMF has lifted their 2024 growth forecast for the US by 0.2% to 2.8% but has cut the forecast for China by 0.2% to 4.8%, citing continued weakness in the property sector and low consumer confidence. The IMF’s 2025 China growth forecast was unchanged at 4.5%. In other news, Chinese demand for natural gas is set to jump by more than 50% by 2040 and reach 100m tons in LNG imports very soon, according to an executive at Cheniere Energy, Yingying Zhou, in a statement at the Asia Gas Markets conference. Finally, a Bloomberg report revealed that the US is monitoring shadow fleets in Southeast Asia, posing safety and environmental hazards. Malaysian coasts currently harbour the largest cluster of shadow fleet tankers, where ship-to-ship (STS) transfers are made to hide the origin of the oil. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, moving from $73.85/bbl at 07:00 BST up to $74.95/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). Prices have been supported this morning as tensions heighten in the Middle East, with airlines including Emirates and Qatar Airways now suspending flights to Iran. In the news today, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has arrived in Israel to meet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and revive ceasefire talks. Just a few hours before Blinken’s arrival, Hezbollah has fired several missiles into Tel Aviv and Haifa, according to Financial Times. In other news, Russia’s seaborne crude shipments have risen to their highest level since June this year. Russia shipped 3.47mb/d of crude in the four weeks to 20 Oct, a 140kb/d jump in four-week average cargoes, as per data by Bloomberg. Finally, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has increased China’s 2025 crude oil import quota for non-state-owned firms at 5.14mb/d. The ministry will add and adjust quotas based on companies’ demand and new capacity. At the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China reduced its crude imports from major suppliers in the month of September. GACC data showed China’s daily crude imports from Russia, Iraq, and Brazil fell m/m by 4.52%, 16.00%, and 48.85%, respectively. However, crude imports from Saudi Arabia increased to 1.81mb/d, up 44.92% m/m since August. In other news, South Sudan’s crude oil exports are set to resume as a blockage in a northern pipeline via Sudan has been cleared. As per Bloomberg, the pipeline funnelled more than 150kb/d to Port Sudan prior to its breakdown in February this year. Finally, the Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India’s petrochemical sector is projected to receive investments worth $87 billion over the next decade to meet rising demand. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China reduced its crude imports from major suppliers in the month of September. GACC data showed China’s daily crude imports from Russia, Iraq, and Brazil fell m/m by 4.52%, 16.00%, and 48.85%, respectively. However, crude imports from Saudi Arabia increased to 1.81mb/d, up 44.92% m/m since August. In other news, South Sudan’s crude oil exports are set to resume as a blockage in a northern pipeline via Sudan has been cleared. As per Bloomberg, the pipeline funnelled more than 150kb/d to Port Sudan prior to its breakdown in February this year. Finally, the Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India’s petrochemical sector is projected to receive investments worth $87 billion over the next decade to meet rising demand. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures weakened this afternoon, from over $74.50/bbl at 13:20 BST to $72.55/bbl at 16:25 BS, recovering $73.25/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). Total is planning a shutdown of its largest European refinery, in Antwerp, in 2025. This facility, which is the company’s biggest oil-processing plant in Europe with a capacity of around 340kb/d, will undergo maintenance starting in September. The scheduled work will focus on the crude processing units and one of the refinery’s two fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs). China’s diesel exports fell to 350kt in September, the lowest since June 2023, due to limited shipment quotas and near break-even margins. This marks a 71% drop from the same month last year, with total petroleum exports reaching just 730kt, the lowest since April. China’s new home prices in September saw their steepest decline since May 2015, dropping 5.8% year-on-year, according to official data. This follows a 5.3% decrease in August, despite efforts to revive the property sector. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, trading from $74.76/bbl at 07:00 BST and declining to $74.06/bbl at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Prices lacked strength this morning amid reports of Chinese oil refining falling to a three-month low of 58.7 million tons, a reduction of 1.6% y/y, according to Bloomberg. In the news today, Israeli authorities have released a drone video allegedly displaying Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar dying in the ruins of building in southern Gaza, as per Reuters. Following Sinwar’s death, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised to continue conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. In other news, Chevron and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) have made a new oil discovery in the Niger Delta, according to S&P Global. Chevron has yet to offer information on potential production targets or a timeline for facility operations. Finally, Russian oil producer Lukoil stated that the company had no plans to buy back shares from foreign investors after requesting permission from the government to buy back 25% last year, Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev said. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.43/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures fell from close to $80.00/bbl to $74.00/bbl this week as the geopolitical risk premium was priced-out and back in at a rate that puts no one’s mind to rest. As soon as part of the premium has been chipped out of the price, mid to low-70s were not far behind, and they must feel at home. Volatility has dropped as $74.00/bbl has proven less mean-reverting and more mean-unwavering, with Dec’24 trading between $73.50/bbl and $75.00/bbl for a few days. The Washington Post seems confident in Iran’s energy security, although this was a bit undermined by Netanyahu purposefully undermining it and reminding the international community that they will act however they feel ‘necessary’. Chinese news, positive or negative, has taken a breather this week. The geopolitical tension is with all hopes of de-escalating, leaving little to distract from the supply/demand that the market has been happy to pin at mid-70s.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract weakened amid choppy price action from $74.39/bbl at 07:00 BST to $74.35/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). Price action showed volatility throughout the morning while Iran issued a warning to Israel against retaliation for Iran’s 01 Oct missile attack. In the news today, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, stated in a televised speech: “if you (Israel) commit any aggression against any point, we will painfully attack the same point of yours”. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified strikes on Eastern Lebanon, with the town of Al-Khiam hit by seven airstrikes in less than 10 minutes last night, according to the state-affiliated National News Agency. In other news, Oman’s state-owned upstream oil and gas operator, OQ Exploration and Production Company (OQEP), raised over $2 billion from its IPO on the Muscat Stock Exchange. According to Bloomberg, the OQEP deal is the biggest Gulf IPO since the $2.5 billion share sale of Adnoc in 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.44/bbl and $1.72/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract continued to weaken this morning, falling from $74.80/bbl at 08:25 BST to briefly dropping below $74/bbl at 10:20 BST. While the benchmark crude futures contract found support here, it fell to $73.88/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The gasoline market has shown good strength in the past two weeks. The Dec’24 RBBR rose from below $8.00/bbl on 1 Oct to a high of over $10.25/bbl on 11 Oct before it softened to $9.85/bbl on 15 Oct. The US and European gasoline structures were supported as we began to enter refinery maintenance season, which could have allowed for the buildup of 5.81mb in crude inventories and a draw of 6.3mb in gasoline stocks, with RBBR seeing particular support in the US open. EBOB spreads saw great strength as the Nov/Dec’24 rallied from a fortnightly low of $10.75/mt on 2 Oct to $20.50/mt on 11 Oct, where it has been very flat since.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed weakness throughout the morning, trading at $78.09/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to just above the $77.00/bbl handle at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Price action has been weak amid a continuing lack of confidence in China’s economic stimulus to combat deflation and increases in Libyan crude output. In the news today, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated that Libyan crude production has recovered to 1.3mb/d, reaching levels seen before the political dispute over Libya’s central bank. In other news, the US said it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced anti-missile system. US President Biden has stated that this decision was meant to “defend Israel”, according to Reuters. US officials have yet to announce how quickly their forces will be deployed. Finally, China’s first ultra-deepwater field, Deep Sea 1, is reported to have produced 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900,000 cubic meters of oil to date, as per Xinhua. This development comes as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign hydrocarbons. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened slightly this afternoon, trading at $77.27/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $77.36/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). Despite a mid-afternoon rally to $78.10/bbl at 14:50 BST, price action saw downward pressure amid OPEC’s cut to their oil demand forecast. In the news today, OPEC, in their Oct’24 monthly oil market report, has reduced their forecast for global oil demand growth from 2.03mb/d to 1.93mb/d for 2024, as per Reuters. Poor Chinese demand accounted for most of this reduction, trimmed down by OPEC from 650kb/d to 580kb/d in the report. In other news, Israeli forces have intensified their strikes on north Gaza, shifting their focus to the city of Jabalia. At least 10 people were killed in an Israeli attack on a food distribution centre in the city, according to Palestinian medics. Meanwhile, in China, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has begun air force, navy, and army drills in the Taiwan Strait. Senior Captain Li Xi of the PLA said this display serves “as a stern warning to separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces”. Finally, Algeria is set to announce a new oil and gas licensing round, in which majors including Exxon, Chevron, Eni, and Sinopec are expected to bid, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed weakness throughout the morning, trading at $78.09/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to just above the $77.00/bbl handle at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Price action has been weak amid a continuing lack of confidence in China’s economic stimulus to combat deflation and increases in Libyan crude output. In the news today, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated that Libyan crude production has recovered to 1.3mb/d, reaching levels seen before the political dispute over Libya’s central bank. In other news, the US said it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced anti-missile system. US President Biden has stated that this decision was meant to “defend Israel”, according to Reuters. US officials have yet to announce how quickly their forces will be deployed. Finally, China’s first ultra-deepwater field, Deep Sea 1, is reported to have produced 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900,000 cubic meters of oil to date, as per Xinhua. This development comes as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign hydrocarbons. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.
This afternoon, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed gradual upward movement, trading at $78.65/bbl at 12:00 BST and inching up to $79.04/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). We saw some volatility in price action, with an intraday high of $79.47/bbl just before 16:00 BST, amid further conflict in Lebanon and the release of a Platts survey showing an overall decline in OPEC+ oil production. In the news today, the United Nations said that two of its peacekeepers were injured by explosions near its Naqoura headquarters in southern Lebanon, prompting criticism of Israel from European governments such as Germany and France, according to Bloomberg. In other news, the Platts OPEC+ survey has shown a 500kb/d drop in oil production for September, owing to the halt in Libyan output and improved compliance from Iraq. Lastly, Russia’s Omsk refinery, the country’s largest by production volumes, has increased crude processing by 4% y/y from January to September, according to the state-owned giant Gazprom. The company claims the Omsk refinery processed almost 426kb/d of oil throughout 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
This week, the market remained about as relaxed as a bull on Redbull. A few drowsy comments from “Sleepy Joe” were enough to get everyone on edge as we hit the one-year mark since the October 7th Hamas attacks. But the real action came when investors started sweating over China, thanks to the NDRC. Turns out, unless people start swiping those credit cards like it’s Black Friday, all that monetary stimulus is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. Speaking of storms, the EIA data offered a bit of good news for the bulls. Crude stocks didn’t pile up as high as expected, and commercial oil stockpiles dropped faster than my motivation on a Monday—over 8mb gone, with gasoline inventories taking a 6.3mb plunge. Refiners were busy, cranking out 21.2mb/d of products, with 9.7 million of that being gasoline. It seems U.S. demand is chugging along, possibly boosted by some good old hurricane panic-buying.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
After initial choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off, trading at $77.86/bbl at 07:00 BST and marginally weakening to $77.82/bbl at 11:00 BST, before plummeting to $76.79/bbl just before 11:30 BST (time of writing). Brent prices showed volatility with the EIA slashing their global oil demand growth forecast by 300kb/d to 1.2mb/d, alongside fears of intensifying conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, Hezbollah is targeting Israeli soldiers with artillery near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh, according to Reuters. However, Hezbollah also signalled that it may be open to a ceasefire with Israel, no longer conditional on a simultaneous truce in Gaza. In other news, Hurricane Milton is due to move through the across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Florida today, with a current wind speed of around 160 mph, according to the US National Hurricane Centre. Due to mass evacuation, at least 21.6% stations in Florida were out of gas at 04:00 BST this morning, as per data from gasoline analyst Patrick De Haan. In addition, around 65kb/d of US Gulf Coast oil output is shut-in, amid port restrictions in preparation for the storm. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.