Crude oil derivatives are essential to the global economy, powering transportation, manufacturing, and financial markets.
Crude oil is refined into petroleum products such as gasoline, naphtha, fuel oil, LPG and diesel.
The front-month (Feb’25) Brent is on track for a weekly decline, as price action has fallen by 2% to $72.50/bbl by 13:30 GMT (time of writing). Various factors have pressured crude prices this week, including more hawkish signals from the
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The front-month (Feb’25) Brent futures contract has seen a supportive performance in the past week, rising to highs of $74.50/bbl on 13 December – but has come off to the $74/bbl level on 16 December (time of writing). This week,
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Iran v Israel, again On Monday, we forecast that the front-month Brent futures contract would end the week between $71 and $74/bbl. As of Friday, 8:30am GMT (time of writing), the contract is trading at around $73.60/bbl, well within this
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Instability in the Middle East The front-month (February 2025) Brent futures contract weakened below $71/bbl on 06 Dec, dipping under the boundary of the symmetric triangle within which the M1 futures contract has oscillated since September (attached). As of Monday,
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The front-month February 2025 Brent contract kicked off Monday by rebounding from last Friday’s lows, trading towards $72.70/bbl at the time of writing. However, the path of least resistance for the flat price this week is still one of weakness
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract concluded last week on a solid note, closing at $75.20/bbl on 22 Nov off the back of escalating tension around the Ukraine war. Prices softened to $74.35/bbl this morning, where they found support briefly, but
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’25 Brent future is trading near recent bottoms, with a wedge forming with lower highs from early October and a quite weak momentum in the bear trend shown by a negative but small MACD differential. We anticipate a short
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch amid a market desperately seeking direction. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Since early November, the Jan’25 Brent crude futures contract has traded in a narrow range, between $73.50 and $76.00/bbl, with prices settling at $72.80/bbl as of 12:00 GMT on 11 November (time of writing). On US election day, 5 Nov,
Brent crude futures saw a relatively rangebound week, with prices in the Jan’25 contract trading between $74 and $76/bbl. Oil’s reaction to the US election result was subdued, where the ‘Trump trade’ was focused on other risk assets, including equities,
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent crude futures have been trading higher at the start of November, with prices in the Jan’25 contract trading above $74/bbl as of Monday morning. Price action was supported as market participants remain on edge over the conflict in the
The Risk Premium Rises (Again) On Monday, we held a bearish view of the Jan’24 Brent futures contract and forecast it to end the week between $68-71/bbl. While the futures contract did weaken to an intraday low of $70.28/bbl on
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Market Resets Oil prices finally saw a cooling of the geopolitical risk premia tied to fears of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil and nuclear infrastructure, with the soon-to-be-prompt Jan’25 Brent futures contract falling from a close of $75.62/bbl
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Geopolitical risk: down but not out We see a firm Brent complex this week. We forecast Dec’24 Brent futures to end the week in the mid-70s, and we anticipate a ceiling of around $78, and $73/bbl acting as a floor.
The Dec’24 Brent crude futures contract cratered by $3 overnight Monday (14 Oct) from around $77.50/bbl to $74.50/bbl, before trading rangebound for the remainder of the week between $74/bbl and $75/bbl. Prices are set for their biggest weekly decline since
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Turbulent Times Ahead On Monday, we predicted the Dec’24 Brent futures to finish the week between $69-74/bbl amid an oversupplied oil market. However, the futures contract witnessed an injection of bullish sentiment due to growing concerns regarding the regional escalation
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
We are looking for the front-month December 24 contract to finish the week between $69-74/bbl with the drivers dictating the rangebound regime essentially unchanged: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East moved a notch higher. Israel has stepped up kinetic action
Lacking a spark We expected Nov’24 Brent futures to end the week trading between $70/bbl and $75.00/bbl as we failed to see it breaking out of a rangebound market. Price action this week validated this view, with the contract trading
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Feb’25 Brent futures failed to break through support at $72.00/bbl throughout this afternoon and rose to $73.00/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that potential G7 sanctions on Russia’s oil industry could destabilise global energy markets and prompt Russian countermeasures. Proposed measures include reducing the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $40/bbl or banning its transportation and insurance, though no decision has been finalised. According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, Russia increased oil exports to China by 1.65% year-on-year to 99 million tons from January to November, valued at $57.4 billion (+4.7%). The EIA forecasts U.S. energy consumption rising from 93.69 qBtu in 2023 to 95.15 qBtu in 2025, with liquid fuels averaging 20.29 mb/d in 2024 and 20.53 in 2025 and natural gas at 90.5 and 90.2 billion cubic feet/day, respectively. Russia remains China’s top oil supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. Presidents Putin and Xi emphasised strengthening energy cooperation during their May meeting. At the time of writing, the front (Feb/Mar’25) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’25) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.89/bbl, respectively.
Feb’25 Brent futures fell from $73.70/bbl at 13.30 GMT to $72.70/bbl at 17:00 GMT. A US government shutdown is looming as Congress scrambles to pass a stopgap bill, despite opposition from President-elect Donald Trump, according to Fox News. Economic data showed jobless claims dropped to 220,000 (below estimates) from 242,000 the previous week. US GDP saw annualised growth of 3.1% in Q3, and the Philadelphia Fed survey plunged to -16.4, compared to the predicted +3.0. BP and Iraq have agreed on key technical terms for redeveloping Kirkuk’s oil and gas fields, which still contain billions of barrels of recoverable oil. According to BP, a full contract is expected to be finalized by early next year. Oil operators in North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state in the US, are still working to restore facilities after October wildfires impacted key production areas. The fires caused a loss of 520kb and a decline in output to 1.178 mb/d from 1.2 mb/d in September. According to Sinopec, China’s oil consumption is projected to peak by 2027 at 800 million metric tons, equivalent to 16 million barrels per day. They say the decline in diesel and gasoline demand is driving the slowdown in the world’s largest oil importer. At the time of writing, the front (Feb/Mar’25) and 6-month (Feb/Aug’25) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $1.78/bbl, respectively.
The Feb Brent Futures contract has seen mixed price action this afternoon, trading up to a high of $74.12 at 16:10 GMT before retracing to $73.61/bbl where it sits at the time of writing, as EIA data highlighted that crude inventories fell by 934kb to 421mb in the week, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6mb draw. In headlines, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to a three-month high in October, reaching 5.92 mb/d, up 174 kb/d from September, according to JODI data. Despite the increase in exports, crude production slightly declined to 8.972 mb/d as the Kingdom adhered to its pledge to produce “around 9 mb/d.” Meanwhile, Barclays downgraded the energy services sector from positive to neutral, citing a bearish oil macro environment, limited investor capital influx, and potential risks to 2025 earnings. The sector, after three years of double-digit growth, is now experiencing a mid-cycle spending plateau. At the time of writing, the front (Feb/Mar’25) and 6 month (Feb/Aug’25) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.64/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures flat price came off from the $73.20/bbl handle on Tuesday afternoon. Price action fell to lows of $72.50/bbl before recovering to $72.88/bbl by 17:20 GMT (time of writing). In the headlines, the UK imposed new sanctions on two oil trading firms, 2Rivers DMCC and 2Rivers Pte Ltd, and 20 shadow fleet vessels to curb Russian oil revenues and disrupt its illicit oil trade. Oil has washed ashore tens of kilometres of Russia’s Black Sea coast after two aging tankers were damaged in a storm, and now a third tanker has issued a distress signal, heightening fears of a worsening environmental disaster. Saudi Arabia has successfully extracted lithium from oilfield brine and plans to launch a commercial pilot program led by Lihytech, showcasing its move toward alternative wealth sources amid rising global demand for battery minerals. Kazakhstan has downgraded its 2024 oil output forecast to 87.8 million tons, citing maintenance at the Tengiz oilfield, with production totalling 80.5 million tons from January to November. Finally, the front (Feb/Mar) and 6-month (Feb/Aug) Brent futures spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $1.41/bbl respectively.
Brent/Dubai has continued its downward grind, with the M1 contract falling to its lowest level since July. The Jan’25 contract reached lows of $0.10/bbl on 17 Dec, while the entire forward curve has shifted lower in an orderly fashion. The contango in the Brent/Dubai boxes is very orderly, without any kinks on the curve (see appendix). The medium sour crude market has continued to tighten as OPEC+ delayed their output hikes to Q2’25. Despite buying some time and supporting flat prices, our global crude balance suggests a bearish picture for 2025, with OPEC+ possibly needing to defer their output hikes further.
December has continued to see strong buying in the physical windows from a range of players, with 34 convergences so far in December. The main seller so far this month has been Equinor. Totsa has been a keen buyer of WTI Midland and has bought 18 cargoes out of the total number this month. There has been heavier selling in the past few days in the financial contracts, and there has been better selling interest and better selling in the new year weeks from trade players.
The Feb’25 Brent futures flat price traded within a 60c range on Monday afternoon. Price action reached highs of $74.30/bbl at 15:30 GMT before falling to $73.74/bbl at 16:30 and climbed to $74.11/bbl by 17:30 (time of writing). In the news, the EU has adopted its 15th sanctions package against Russia, targeting 52 new vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet, increasing the total number of such listings to 79. Shell and its partners will invest $5 billion in Nigeria’s Bonga North offshore oil project, expected to produce 110kb/d by the decade’s end, with 300 million barrels of oil equivalent recoverable from the area. According to a Bloomberg article, tanker rates for Middle East-China routes (TD3C) have fallen by a third this year due to weaker Chinese crude demand, driven by an economic slowdown, fuel-switching, and OPEC+ delays in restarting idled supply, impacting supertanker operators significantly. US SPR crude inventories rose by 0.5mb w/w to 393.0mb last week. Finally, the front (Feb/Mar) and 6-month (Feb/Aug) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.69/bbl respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures flat price initially saw a decline this afternoon from around $74.10/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $73.60/bbl at 14:05 GMT, before recovering to $74.40/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has persisted as Russia launched an extensive aerial attack today on Ukraine’s power grid, using 93 missiles and nearly 200 drones, as per Reuters. Ukrainian officials stated six unspecified energy facilities were damaged in the western region of Lviv, in addition to serious damage to thermal power plants, according to DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy provider. In other news, the presidential decree banning Russian companies from selling oil and petroleum products at the price cap set by the G7 countries has been extended until the end of June 2025, according to Russian news agency Interfax. Finally, US-based Kosmos Energy said it is in early preliminary discussions to buy Tullow Oil, with a view to potentially expanding their African oil assets. Kosmos currently has oil production and exploration assets in basins offshore Ghana and Equatorial Guinea, while Tullow Oil owns offshore production platforms in Ghana, Gabon and Cote d’Ivoire. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
With the confirmation of OPEC+ delaying their output hikes, it looks like crude flat price will cling on to 70 for a while longer. The group has certainly bought themselves some more time, but at what cost? That is not a rhetorical question. Their market share is eroding as fast as Manchester City’s form, and our global oil balance suggests that it would be wise for the group to delay the cuts until 2026. Event risk has been one of the sole bullish drivers of flat price, with the flurry of headlines coming out of both the Middle East and Eastern Europe. But for a sustained rise, global crude demand must play ball. Climate activists will rightfully point out that the world is consuming as much oil as ever, but if you followed the narratives in our market you would be forgiven to think that we have already reached peak oil and that the end is nigh. But in the near-term, OPEC+ have really tightened the market. North Sea physical differentials remain supportive, gasoline cracks are on the rise, and US crude inventories are seasonally on the low side. We expect the bears to win the war, but the bulls are winning out this battle, demonstrating some exceptional resilience.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract initially saw weakness this afternoon, falling from $73.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $72.45/bbl around 16:10 GMT, before recovering to $73.65/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated amid reports that Israel is preparing for potential strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, according to The Times of Israel. In the news today, the Kremlin has stated that Russian President Putin backs Hungarian Prime Minister Orban’s efforts to achieve a Christmas ceasefire in Ukraine and a major exchange of prisoners of war, as per Reuters. In other news, Saudi Arabia plans to ship 46mb of crude oil to China in January, the highest volume since October and significantly higher than the 36.5mb of volume expected in December, as per Reuters. Sinopec and PetroChina is expected to lift more crude, as well as non-state owned refiners Rongsheng Petrochemical and Shenghong Petrochemical. Finally, Germany’s oil product sales increased 6.2% y/y to 7.602 million tons in September, with heating oil recording the highest rise of 45.9% y/y to 1.114 million tons and jet fuel seeing the biggest decline of 18.7% y/y to 0.714 million tons, according to BAFA. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract weakened this morning, increasing from $73.65/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $73.95/bbl at 09:00 GMT, before falling back down to $73.50/bbl at 10:55 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will respond to Ukraine’s ATACMS strike on Russian territory, as per Reuters. This came as Russia claimed Ukraine targeted a military airfield on the Azov sea with six US-made ATACMS missiles on 11 Dec. In other news, Rosneft has agreed to supply nearly 500kb/d of crude oil to Indian private refiner Reliance in the biggest energy deal ever between the two countries, according to Reuters. The 10-year agreement amounts to approximately 0.5% of global supply and is worth $13 billion a year. Finally, Norway’s Vaar Energi has discovered additional oil reserves in the Arctic Goliat field, with recoverable resources estimated to be between 4 million and 25 million barrels of oil equivalent, the company said in a statement. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.40/bbl and $1.59/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract was supported this afternoon, rising from $73.00/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.40/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, OPEC’s monthly report has cut oil demand growth forecasts for this 2024 by 210kb/d to 1.6mb/d, marking the fifth consecutive month the cartel has reduced its demand projection, as per Bloomberg. Meanwhile, crude oil production from all OPEC members rose by 104kb/d in November m/m, due to increased output in Libya, Iran, and Nigeria, according to OPEC’s secondary sources. Nigeria’s oil production hit its highest level for 2024 in November with a total of 1.7mb/d (+13.3% m/m) of crude oil and condensate output. In other news, Exxon has unveiled plans to increase spending to $28-$33 billion annually with a goal of lifting oil and gas output by 18% by 2030. Furthermore, Exxon aims to triple its production in the Permian Basin to 2.3mb/d by 2030 and pump 1.3mb/d in Guyana, as per Reuters. Finally, At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $1.45/bbl, respectively.
After trading comfortably around $72.50/bbl overnight, the Feb’25 Brent futures contract has increased to $72.85/bbl this morning at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have been supported following the announcement of China’s looser monetary policy stance and expectations of a US Fed rate cut next week. In the news today, the Biden administration is considering harsher sanctions against Russian oil in the leadup to Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. The sanctions could target Russian oil exports according to anonymous sources familiar with the matter, however, no exact details have been specified, as per Bloomberg. In other news, Russian crude oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline to the Czech Republic have continued as normal, operator MERO said following Ukrainian strikes on an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region last night, according to Reuters. Finally, Ecuador’s imports of refined products have been rising amid low refinery utilisation rates, with refining throughput for 2024 expected to drop 13.4% in 2024 y/y, as per S&P Global. Ecuador’s oil products imports were recorded at 4.1mb in September, 5mb for October, and 5.2mb in November. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.33/bbl and $1.27/bbl, respectively.
There was a battle for the barrels in the North Sea, with Totsa and Trafigura buying heavily and Equinor and Gunvor on the sell side. We have seen this same group of players swaying the flow in the Dated market for a few weeks now. The comparable power in the buying and selling has allowed for the Dated physical differential to move very little. The diff has been oscillating around 100c/bbl for almost a month now, failing to maintain anything 10c above or below a dollar since mid-November.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this afternoon, increasing from $71.80/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to a touch above $72.50/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Equinor stated that the start-up of their Johan Castberg oilfield in the Arctic has been postponed to January or February 2025 due to poor weather conditions. Johan Castberg, located in the Barents Sea, holds estimated recoverable volumes of 450mb to 650mb of crude oil and will be able to produce 220kb/d at its peak, according to Equinor. In other news, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) said that Chinese oil demand could peak at 770 million metric tons as early as 2025 owing to the adoption of EVs and LNG trucks. This time last year, CNPC expected a peak of between 780-800 million metric tons in oil demand coming to China by 2030. Finally, Chevron has completed upgrades to its refinery in Pasadena, Texas, which is expected to increase processing capacity of lighter crudes by nearly 15% to 125kb/d. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.30/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, trading from $71.85/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.20/bbl at 09:00 GMT and falling to around $71.55/bbl at 11:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Israeli airstrikes targeted Syrian military installations and airbases overnight, but denied its forces had advanced into Syria beyond a buffer zone at the border, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu took the witness stand for the first time in his long-running corruption trial, pleading not guilty to charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. In Russia, Foreign Intelligence Chief Sergei Naryshkin said that Moscow was close to achieving its goals in Ukraine, with Russia holding what he said was the strategic initiative in all areas in the war, as per Reuters. In other news, Iraq has ended the year without finalising a deal with Kurdistan for exports of crude oil from the northern region. MP Jiay Timor from the Kurdistan Democratic Party stated that the delay stems from disagreements over the cost of oil extraction, with the Iraqi government initially estimating the cost at $6/bbl while “foreign companies” estimated the cost to be as high as $26/bbl, according to Shafaq News. Finally, China’s customs data showed oil imports rose to 11.81mb/d in November, the first increase seen in seven months. The total for the month was 48.5 million tons of crude, a 14.3% increase y/y. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $1.13/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon, increasing from $71.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $72.65/bbl shortly after 15:40 GMT, before falling to $72.35/bbl at 17:55 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were supported this afternoon with news of supply disruption in Syria alongside China’s easing monetary policy stance aiding bullish sentiment. In the news today, a tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria turned around in the Red Sea after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Syria has not exported oil since late 2011, when international sanctions came in force, and is reliant on fuel imports from Iran, according to Reuters. In other news, an explosion and fire at a fuel depot owned by energy major Eni near Florence, Italy, killed at least two people and injured nine. The depot receives, stores, and ships out gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, connected to a refinery in Livorno via two pipelines also operated by Eni. At present, the explosion and fire have not affected storage tanks, according to Eni. Finally, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said that Israel is now more optimistic about a possible hostage deal in Gaza, with indirect negotiations under way about the return of 100 hostages, as per Reuters. Foreign Minister Saar has stipulated “there will not be a ceasefire in Gaza without a hostage deal”. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $1.17/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, increasing from $71.50/bbl at 07:00 GMT to around $72.10/bbl at 08:25 GMT, before tapering off to $71.80/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Israel has struck chemical weapons sites in Syria in reaction to the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, with Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz stating the country’s military was continuing to seize “high ground” inside Syria, according to Financial Times. A wide area of the Israel-Syria border was governed by a 1974 armistice agreement, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claiming this agreement has now “collapsed”. Meanwhile, US President-elect Trump called for an immediate ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia on 8 Dec, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying Russia was open to talks. For a peace deal to go ahead, Russian President Putin has stated Ukraine must not join NATO and Russia should be given full control of four Ukrainian regions his troops partially occupy, as per Reuters. In other news, Saudi Arabia has lowered its Arab Light OSP for Asian customers from $1.70/bbl in December to $0.90/bbl for January-loading cargoes. According to Reuters, this is the lowest premium for Arab Light since January 2021. Finally, China’s Politburo led by President Xi Jinping announced it will embrace a “moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy in 2025, as per Bloomberg. Top officials made pledges to “stabilise property and stock markets” and emphasised the importance of boosting consumption, as Beijing prepares for the potential impact of US President-elect Trump’s vow to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese exports. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $1.10/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract fell this afternoon from a high of $71.60/bbl at around 12:30 GMT down to $70.85/bbl at 15:30 GMT as support was seen at the lower Bollinger band and the prompt tose to $71.25/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Oil supplies from Russia to the Czech Republic via the Druzhba pipeline restarted today after flows were interrupted earlier this week. “Oil supplies were restored this morning, and oil is flowing again through the Druzhba pipeline to the Czech Republic,” Unipetrol’s chief executive Mariusz Wnuk said in a post of the company on X (Twitter). Analysts at Barclays have said the oil market may be too pessimistic, as they believe tighter supply-demand dynamics could emerge by 2025 and support higher prices, with 2026 expected to be even tighter. Barclays predicts Brent is more likely to stay above $70/bbl than fall below unless there’s a significant drop in Iranian output. The US added 227,000 jobs in November, beating expectations, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. Growth was led by healthcare, hospitality, and manufacturing, though retail lost 28,000 jobs. Revised data showed stronger gains in September and October, supporting expectations for a Fed rate cut. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.33/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract fell slightly from $72/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $71.65/bbl at 10:20 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil markets appear to have largely priced in the OPEC+ decision to delay production hikes, in line with traders’ expectations and ongoing concerns surrounding oil demand. In the news today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated in an interview that the use of a hypersonic missile on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last month was a demonstration to the West that Moscow is ready to use any means to ensure no “strategic defeat” would be inflicted on Russia. In other news, Chevron will reduce capital expenditures in the Permian Basin to between $4.5 billion and $5 billion in 2025, a drop of more than 10% y/y and marking the oil giant’s first budget reduction since 2021, as per Bloomberg. Finally, German industrial production data released 06 Dec for October showed a 1% decline m/m compared to expectations of a 1.2% increase. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany said the decline was mainly centred in energy production and the automotive industry. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.26/bbl, respectively.
This week, the North Sea physical market saw the largest amount of cargoes traded in 16 years, with 8 cargoes, or approximately 5.6mb of crude, changing hands in this Monday’s pricing window (2 Dec). With large market players Trafigura and Total going head to head for bids, we await to see if this spurt of buying will continue throughout December and lend further support to the Dated Brent market. In other news, 5 Dec’s OPEC+ ministerial meeting has been a key focus throughout the week with the cartel now delaying its production hike by three months, previously scheduled to begin in January with an increase of 180kb/d. Instead, the revival of its oil production will start in April and unwind output cuts at a slower rate than planned. Whether this move is enough to keep crude prices sustained above $70/bbl remains to be seen, with continuing Chinese oil demand concerns blighting the global demand growth forecast. In addition, the market appears to be unbothered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, with both sides exchanging accusations of violating the peace deal. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict poses more of a risk as Russia continues to directly target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, while Ukraine struck Russia’s Atlas oil depot in the Rostov region this week, showing the potential for supply disruption remains.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract fell this afternoon from $72.85/bbl at 11:35 GMT down to $72.05/bbl shortly before 18:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, OPEC+ delayed the revival of its oil production by three months to April, originally scheduled to begin in January with a hike of 180kb/d, according to Bloomberg. OPEC+ is expected to unwind the output cuts at a much slower rate than previously planned, though no official timeline has been specified. In other news, rising costs have squeezed intermediaries out of Russian oil trade with India due to high funding costs in Russia and lack of access to Western funds, according to six trading sources cited by Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian oil flows to the Czech Republic via the Druzhba pipeline were seen resuming today after payment issues linked to the transit via Ukraine caused a halt, two sources told Reuters. Finally, Iraq’s oil exports fell slightly in November to 3.296mb/d from 3.327mb/d in October, according to a senior Oil Ministry official. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.28/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract has seen marginal strength this morning, trading from $72.40/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $72.65/bbl at 10:25 GMT (time of writing). With the OPEC+ ministerial meeting on production policy taking place today on 05 Dec, traders are anticipating potential news of OPEC+ delaying production hikes further into Q1’25. In the news today, Shell and Equinor are to combine their UK offshore oil and gas assets in a 50-50 joint venture, Financial Times reported. The project, which will be based in Aberdeen, will take over Equinor’s stakes in three North Sea fields and Shell’s stakes in nine, adding to a combined production capacity of around 138kb/d. In other news, Unipetrol stated that Russian crude oil flows to the Czech Republic through the Druzhba pipeline remain halted, with a Unipetrol spokesman claiming he did not know the reason for the stoppage, as per Reuters. Finally, Rosneft has invested $20 billion in India recently, the Indian government quoted Russian President Putin as saying in a statement on Thursday, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this afternoon, increasing from around $73.80/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $74.07/bbl at 14:30 GMT, before declining to $73.25/bbl at 17:55 GMT (time of writing). EIA stats released at 15:30 GMT for the week ending 29 Nov showed a 5.07mb draw in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, Spain’s crude oil imports from Venezuela have hit the highest level this year since 2006, thanks to a US license for Spanish energy major Repsol to import Venezuelan crude. In other news, four sources briefed on US intelligence told Reuters that Hezbollah will likely try to rebuild its stockpiles and military forces to pose a long-term threat to the US and its regional allies, with Hezbollah reportedly smuggling materials through Syria. Finally, Pakistan’s Energy Minister Awais Leghari stated that the country requires additional oil refining capacity and is interested in attracting investment from Russia, following a meeting of the Russia-Pakistan intergovernmental commission, reported by Interfax. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.46/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract rose this morning from around $73.80/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $74.10/bbl at 10:20 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices remained supported this morning while traders await tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting (5 Dec), where ministers are expected to further delay production hikes into Q1’25. In the news today, in light of the Syrian rebels’ attack on Aleppo on 30 Nov, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated “If the Syrian government wants us to deploy troops in Syria, we’ll consider their request”, as per Bloomberg. In other news, the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told the Izvestia newspaper that “there are no grounds for negotiations yet” on how to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that advisers to US President Trump are floating proposals to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia while ruling out potential NATO membership for Ukraine. Finally, South Korean lawmakers submitted a bill on Wednesday to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law and reversed the move hours later, as per Reuters. S&P Global claimed that the political conflict would pose no risk to oil products supplies for Asia-Oceania customers. However, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) launched an indefinite labour strike on 4 Dec until the South Korean president resigns, which could cause minor delays in the domestic retail fuel supply network. Finally, At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.44/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract continued to rise this afternoon from $72.62/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.65/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Russia’s seaborne crude exports have risen ahead of 5 Dec’s OPEC+ ministerial meeting to discuss production policy for 2025. Daily crude flows in the week to 1 Dec jumped by about 570kb/d to 3.36 million with more ships leaving Russia’s Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz threatened to return to war in Lebanon if its truce with Hezbollah collapses, stating “until now we separated the state of Lebanon from Hezbollah… it will no longer be [like this]”, according to a Reuters report. Finally, maintenance at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field is still ongoing with repairs not completed on schedule, the Kazakh Energy Ministry told Russian news agency Interfax. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.46/bbl, respectively.
The Brent/Dubai continues to narrow, with the front-month contract falling below $0.50/bbl, the lowest level for a front-month contract since September. On paper, Dubai crude has gained much of the strength lost in previous months. The fundamental story suggests a bullish market reaction to the expectation of OPEC+ prolonging their output cuts into Q1. Previously, the Brent/Dubai forward curve had priced in the expectation of extra barrels, which has supported outright levels. The entire forward curve has shifted lower from $1/bbl to around $0.80/bbl. We have officially returned to the ‘standard’ regime of Brent/Dubai selling, and Dubai spread buying, as evidenced by our market positioning data.
December began with a buying spree in the Platts window, with Total and Trafigura buying a total of seven cargoes – the most recorded in the window for years.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract was supported this morning, rising from $72.10/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $72.50/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated amid reports that OPEC+ is likely to extend oil production cuts at its 5 Dec meeting until the end of Q1’25, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters. In the news today, the Pentagon has announced a new $725 million arms package for Ukraine which includes anti-personnel mines and air defence missiles. Meanwhile, diplomats expect Ukraine’s invitation for NATO membership is unlikely to be approved at the NATO foreign ministers meeting, taking place 3-4 Dec in Brussels. In other news, Indonesia has launched auctions for six oil and gas exploration blocks, bringing the total number of blocks offered this year to 11, according to the country’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. Dadan Kusdiana, a senior energy ministry official, stated that the six blocks have a combined potential of 48 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Finally, a sophisticated fuel oil smuggling network is believed to generate at least $1 billion per year for Iraq and its proxies since Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani took office in 2022, five sources told Reuters. The operation exploits Iraqi government subsidies for fuel oil allocated to asphalt plants, diverting 3.4mb to 5mb of fuel oil each month for export, primarily to Asia. In addition, Iraq has halted operations at its Basra oil refinery on 1 Dec due to overloaded storage tanks, with the facility producing approximately 260kb/d of fuel oil prior to the shutdown, according to Zawya. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.30/bbl and $1.25/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this afternoon, falling from $72.66/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.77/bbl at 17:55 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Iran-backed Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah has no plans for now to join them, according to a Reuters report. Meanwhile, Hezbollah launched an attack on an Israeli army position in the Mount Dov area, as an “initial warning” amid “continued violation of Lebanese airspace by hostile Israeli aircraft”, The Times of Israel reported. This came as US special envoy Amos Hochstein reportedly sent a message urging Israel to uphold the ceasefire deal, in light of Israeli drone flights over Beirut. In other news, Asia’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia rose to 5.83mb/d in November, up from 5.28mb/d in October, as per data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. In addition, Russia’s supplies to Asia dropped to 3.51mb/d in November, the lowest level since January, according to LSEG. Finally, Gazprom’s natural gas flows via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters annually, as per Russian news agency Interfax. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.
Feb’25 Brent crude futures inched up from $72.42/bbl at 07:00 GMT this morning to $72.60/bbl at 10:55 GMT (at time of writing). Crude oil prices saw support while Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November, up from 50.3 in October, and Israel continued to bomb Lebanon today despite last week’s ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, on 30 Nov, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated it hit a new production high for crude oil and condensates, pumping 1.39mb/d according to Libya Herald. In the news today, Poland has shut down a section of the Druzhba pipeline after detecting a leak, as per Bloomberg. The pipeline operator PERN claimed the leak did not affect supply to customers, as oil supplies continued through a second branch “whose technical capabilities fully cover the volume needs”, according to Reuters. In other news, a Bloomberg report revealed that a broadening of US sanctions on tankers hauling Iranian crude has slowed the delivery of oil from Iran to China, citing ship-tracking data. However, no estimate was given for the total potential disruption to Iran’s crude oil flows. Finally, India’s gasoline consumption jumped 9% in November y/y, as Indian gasoline sales hit 3.42 million metric tons, according to the Economic Times. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.23/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, falling from $73.05/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $72.45/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). EIA data for the week to 22 Nov showed a larger-than-expected draw of 1.84mb in US crude oil inventories, compared to a build of 0.5mb the prior week. In the news today, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the US today to halt a “spiral of escalation” over Ukraine, stating “you mustn’t supply Kyiv with everything they want”, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS quoted an official saying Moscow was working to put its Sarmat ICBM, part of its strategic nuclear arsenal, on combat duty. In other news, the Kazakh Energy Ministry has proposed widening the current six-month ban on fuel exports to gasoline, jet fuel and bitumen, starting January 2025, according to Interfax. Finally, Prax is continuing to work toward buying Shell’s minority stake in the Schwedt oil refinery in east Germany, as per Bloomberg. The shareholder structure of the Schwedt refinery has been complicated by the involvement of Russia’s Rosneft, whose stake was seized by the German government. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $1.68/bbl, respectively.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, falling from $72.77/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $72.08/bbl at 10:55 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment as markets weighed up the prospect of ample supply heading into 2025 and continuing uncertainties surrounding demand outlook, as per Reuters. In the news today, Israeli forces have killed at least 42 people in the Gaza strip accused of ceasefire violations, as bombing intensifies according to Al Jazeera. In other news, Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told Reuters that Ottawa must make sure the Trump administration understands how their plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports would be counterproductive, not only for oil but also as America benefits from Canadian uranium and hydro exports to the US.
Happy Thanksgiving! As American liquidity dries up in favour of stuffed turkeys, OPEC+ knows what it is not thankful for: the situation they’ve been placed in vis-à-vis bringing their crude oil barrels back into the market.
The Feb’25 Brent futures contract declined marginally from $72.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT to a touch under $72.75/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Russian President Putin said Moscow launched more than 90 missiles and 100 drones that hit 17 targets in Ukraine, leaving more than 1 million people without power…
