Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges On a technical perspective on SEP/OCT Barges, Price is now trading below the lower Bollinger band, and also below the lower RSI, indicating that its trading in the oversold territory. We have observed that majority of
Short Aug Nap E/W Expecting a continuation of weakness as the E/W goes into pricing, driven by stronger Europe cracks and a run of poor economic data from China affecting perceived demand
Short Aug 380 E/W -Since last week the E/W has been climbing on the back of the strengthen Asian Fuel Oil. The physical arb is open and we expect Euro prices to start to rise, so this trade idea is
It has been an unusual year for the oil market. Gasoline, usually a blessing for sentiment in the summer, has been lacklustre throughout June and into July. On the other hand, wintertime performers like propane and butane have seen incredible
The Onyx Futures COT Report seeks to aggregate ICE and CFTC data and present it in a simple format that is digestible and beneficial to all participants in the oil derivatives space.
Long Aug/Sep 0.5% Sing We saw some support on Friday which pushed the spread up to $8.00. This morning Aug/Sep dropped to $7.50, however we believe that the price will resume its upward trend.
“OPEC+ will need to maintain its current voluntary restraint to balance out growth… This will help prevent global balances from weakening at year-end and preserve a price floor at around $80 a barrel.” – Harry Tchilinguirian Follow Harry on X
Long Aug 3.5 barge crack Structure-wise we have seen Barge cracks create a higher low and starting to push up, its recovering from the oversold territory on the RSI indicating for a potential bullish push, alongside market participants are positioned
Long TA Arb at 12c/gal APIs were quite bullish, showing a 2.8M draw. If today’s EIA statistics are close to these figures, we should expect a bullish movement on RBOB. Additionally, the EBOB front has been sticky due to the
Long Aug/Sep 3.5 Barges Since the start of July, Barge spreads have come off, it seems that it has found support at $5/mt levels as it has struggled to break past, we have also seen recent strength in the Barge
The Onyx Futures COT Report seeks to aggregate ICE and CFTC data and present it in a simple format that is digestible and beneficial to all participants in the oil derivatives space.
Short Sep Sing 0.5% Crack With more low sulphur fuel oil cargoes arriving from the West to add to existing stockpiles, we expect LSFO to come under pressure. There has been sluggish demand in the world’s largest bunkering hub of
Long Aug/Oct 3.5% Barge Over the last couple of days, we have seen Aug/Oct fall from $19.50 to $13.50. We’re seeing a shift in sentiment this morning at barge cracks, and spreads are being well-bid with little sell side interest
Onyx remains unaffected from the global IT outage and our services continue to function normally without disruptions. Our IT team has confirmed the stability and security of our infrastructure. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates
The Onyx Futures COT Report seeks to aggregate ICE and CFTC data and present it in a simple format that is digestible and beneficial to all participants in the oil derivatives space.
With European VLSFO in backwardation in the prompt months, physical traders will note that the arb is open and we should see VLSFO from Europe start to flow to Asia.
Long Aug/Sep 380 China’s average daily oil refining throughput slowed in June, a third month of declines, after more domestic plants shut their operations for maintenance. The Asian nation processed 58.32 million tons of crude last month, 4.3% lower than
Long Aug TA Arb @ 9.90c/gal After the recent sell off in the front TA Arb we have started to see some support at these levels and expect buyside interest to enter the market.
TARGET: $86.00/bbl – $88.00/bbl PRICE: $86.10/bbl Party in the USA? Brent appears confident to break a four-time streak of ending the week stronger than where it began, amid a fall from last week’s rally to a four-month high. Despite this,
SHORT SEP 3.5 BRG CRK Temperatures in Europe have been well above seasonal norms and there’s little sign of that changing anytime soon. Looking further into the future, Sweden’s largest refiner says climate change is making fuel production harder. Temperatures
LONG AUG VISCO Visco have been weakened lately by poor physical demand and trade house selling. It has seen some recovery this week with better demand for 180, as cooling demand has increased due to hot weather in the Middle
This week Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi brings you trades in Asian High Sulfur Fuel Oil and Northwestern European propane. Firstly, we take a short-positioned view of Singapore 380 fuel oil spreads. Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of heavy distillates have increased 1.6%
Long Aug/Sep 380 spread : Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380 spread. Hot weather in the Middle East and Persian Gulf were expected to maintain power generator. End-consumers look to cool their houses and buildings. We believe demand for
Onyx Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi reports this week’s Brent forecast.
Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges : Our trade idea is to long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges. Since 1st of July we have seen bullish movements with 3.5 Barge spreads, trading from $8/mt up to now currently trading at $11/mt. We believe spreads will
Long Aug 3.5 Barge crack: Our trade idea is to long Aug 3.5 Barge crack – recently we have seen weakness with the barge crack, trading down from -$7.60/bbl to -$8.90/bbl. However there has been a slight retracement back up
Long Aug/Sep 380: Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380. We have seen continuous rally of Aug/Sep 380 spread since 1st of July. We believe there is still bullish momentum pushing the spreads up higher. For brokerage services across
Long Aug 380 EW: Barge cracks are under pressure due to continued deferred barge crack selling. We think aug 380 EW will be supported on the back of this. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our weekly
We have seen Aug 380 crack has been trading between trading between -$6.65/bbl and -$5.85/bbl since 21st June, showing no real directional movement. Aug 380 crack is trading at a technical support level alongside RSI heading towards oversold territory, we
TARGET PRICE: $83/bbl – $85/bbl PRICE: $85.80/bbl Return of the pre-weekend bulls? On Monday, we forecast short-term bearishness to take the benchmark Brent crude futures to $83-85/bbl by the end of this week. We now see the September futures contract
Short July 0.5 Sing crack Recently, the crack showed significant strength, trading up to $11.45/bbl due to concerns about potential supply issues following a fire at the Dangote refinery. However, Bloomberg reported that the incident was minor and the refinery
In this white paper, Onyx’s team explores the effectiveness of the CFTC COT Report in analysisng market positioning in the oil derivatives complex. Analysis suggests that for an up to date, expansive interpretation of current trader positioning for the whole
Short July 92/MOPJ 92 has been struggling to keep up with the recent strength in RBOB and there is still a firm bullish trend in naphtha. We think this will continue into the end of the month so we expect
Long Q3 EBOB Crack After initial weakness this morning hanging over from yesterday, we think it’s a good opportunity to try and fade that weakness and take an opposing position. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Traders were hoping for a quiet day going into the weekend but instead they got a comatose or nearly dead oil
market. At 15:00 BST Nov Brent stood at a consolidated $73.40/bbl, slightly above its level at yesterday’s close.
Then, however, markets went into freefall. Within the hour, Brent had toppled down by almost $2/bbl, to around
$71.50/bbl. Disastrous Canadian PMIs? Americans selling off? Or just the dour macros weighing down
everyone’s souls? And then in come the Saudis, slashing their monthly OSPs across the board for October
against the preceding month’s differentials. All grades into the Med and Northwest Europe received 80c cuts. In Asia, Arab Light and Medium took a 70c and 80c hits respectively, while Heavy was slapped with a full $1 cut.
Ennui is such a good word to describe the feeling sparked by the dated Brent market. Finally, things start to calm down and go into a reasonable direction where weakness or strength is reflected across all instruments. Equinor continues to increase the profile of Johan Sverdrup like they have bigger plans for the crude stream and sold a cargo loading Oct 1-3 to BP at Dated flat. A boring price but we like boring.
Ennui is such a good word to describe the feeling sparked by the dated Brent market. Finally, things start to calm down and go into a reasonable direction where weakness or strength is reflected across all instruments. Equinor continues to increase the profile of Johan Sverdrup like they have bigger plans for the crude stream and sold a cargo loading Oct 1-3 to BP at Dated flat. A boring price but we like boring.
Dubai’s physical premium has averaged $2.01/bbl so far in September, compared to the 90c in the full month of August. On a flat price basis, the market flatlined today. There’s still a lot of danger for the longs if the right noises are not made by OPEC and friends. OPEC’s life support isn’t working, with Dubai partials gaining 2c and front-month Brent futures losing the same, down at near 14-month lows. Despite some chaotic news announcements about OPEC quotas, Kennie and other long trades have never woken up from their comatose state.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Bad macros finally killed those with narrow focus on supply disruption stories in the face of continuing
loadings and also those believing fantastic stories of demand growth in the 2 mil bbl range.
Hello, wake up everybody; the world economy is soft and you know it, you read it everyday, you see it, you
feel it. You just want to believe your own story or that being fed by producers. What do you expect? That a
producer or group of producers, or long traders are going to tell you the demand growth isn’t there?
Dubai’s surge relative to Brent marches onward. Dubai partials minus front month Brent futures inverted,
going positive for the first time since 10 July, at 9c by the close of Asia today, while on a physical premium
basis, Dubai remains elevated at 2 bucks. While Brent futures spreads and CFDs get hammered in Europe,
Dubai’s prompt structure remains strong, and Dubai continues to outperform. The window was quiet, and
traders were tentative following the overall downward flat price correction. But Vitol and Mets still picked up
some partials from PC and Exxon. Anybody with a sense of end-user demand should sell, of course.
We said yesterday that the market really wanted to go up, regardless of fundamentals. Seems like bulls were too attached to Libya or to some fluffy nonsense as Libyans really need the money and so they’ll find a way to accommodate and keep the cash flowing. Remember technicals are noise but macros always win in the end and macros are super bearish – we say this with in situ reporting from China.
Dubai surged relative to Brent, closing the spread. China is widely seen as underperforming but the weak
picture as we enter the fall is not translating into softer Asian benchmarks. Dubai is the outperformer so far in
September. The prompt weakness in the Dubai we saw throughout the back end of August has been left in
dust after expiration. Vitol continued to bid and are seen as winning with Dubai physical premia rising to over
two bucks in the first two trading days of September.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in naphtha, LPG and crude oil. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The $80/bbl Battleground – Front-month ICE Brent futures moved sideways during August, unable to break out of a circa $76-83/bbl range. Geopolitical swell-ups and weak economic news, raising concern over oil demand, notably out of China, took turns pushing the flat price, respectively, up and down. Neither driver got the upper hand to set Brent on a new trajectory, with Brent’s price generally reverting towards $80/bbl. Even as Jerome Powell…
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
The Nov’24 Brent futures contract began strong last week, reaching $80.15/bbl on 26 Aug amid thin liquidity from players exiting for the bank holiday in the UK. This strength was also attributed to supply outages in Libya.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Money managers were more bullish in the crude futures benchmarks in the week ending 27 August. In both Brent and WTI futures we saw an addition of long positions and a liquidation of short positions. Bullish sentiment was boosted in crude futures as investors became more sanguine about economic growth prospects following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, as he hinted towards the beginning of a rate easing cycle from the next meeting in September. Moreover, supply disruption concerns mounted as Libya’s eastern-based government announced the closure of all oil fields which halted production and exports.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Yesterday Vatman and Gobin were firmly in control but today the story was different. Almost all of the Dubai
Duo’s hard work yesterday was erased at the close of Asia on a premium basis. Relative to other benchmark
grades, Dubai got slammed, with October Brent futures premium over Dubai physical cargoes widening by
88c to $1.79. On a physical premium basis, compared to yesterday, the longs were hammered, with Dubai
partials premium minus Oct swaps falling by almost 50c to $1.17. It lost almost all it gained yesterday.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The sucker went down. We are talking about the flat price, as Brent flat price shed almost $2.50/bbl against yesterday. But in Dubai is a completely different story. The longs are winning on a premium basis.
27 August 2024: 16:30 BST Having surged upwards yesterday morning on the weekend’s bullish geopolitical news, Brent stagnated around the $81/bbl mark today before sliding to around $79.60/bbl by 18:00 BST in a sell-off after market close. “They’re keeping the
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Dated Brent, Gasoil and Naphtha. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
27 August 2024: 09:30 BST Flat price Dubai underperforms while Brent gets a boost. There are many reasons why: sources reconfirmedthat Libya shut off its crude production. 1mb/d of light sweet crude off the market plus the gold Power Powelldusted
The bullish sentiment in crude was short-lived as money managers reverted to getting shorter in the crude futures benchmarks in the week ending 20 August. Sentiment in crude futures has become increasingly bearish on a combination of factors. The geopolitical risk premium has evaporated as markets react to positive progress towards a ceasefire deal between Israel-Hamas, whilst assessing no imminent threat to oil production, transportation, and infrastructure in the region. China’s economic troubles have played a significant role, with both OPEC and the IEA revising down their global oil demand growth projections, citing the impact of a weakened economy on oil consumption.
Last week, Brent futures slipped in the first half of the week and the market priced in an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which did not materialise. Prices were then supported as the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole some dovish hope into the market. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the need to support a strong labour market and acknowledged the unmistakable cooling in labour conditions.
26 August 2024: 09:30 BST Vitol and Gunvor had a tougher window today, “Trafigura sells to” was the theme. But the flat price soaredregardless, but the real action was in Brent. Any price seemed right to sell to, and Trafigura
23 August 2024: 16:30 BST Oh, what good weekends are made of! Gold, money or oil, or stock markets everywhere!!! All went up. Thepower of the FED. Power Powell, we mere mortals, dare we christen you as Midas? We genuflect
23 August 2024: 09:30 BST Dynamic duo Vitol and Gunvor’s avid purchasing is having a discernible impact on the physical premiumswhich have now risen to $1.12/bbl, the highest level of the month. The aggressive bidding has boostedphysical premiums by 25cts
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Sing fuel oil and NWE gasoline.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Last week, the Oct’24 Brent futures failed to hold strength after the highs of $82.50/bbl on 14 Aug was not maintained as the geopolitical risk emanating from the Middle East has become somewhat normalised as Iran’s retaliation continues to brew amid ceasefire negotiations in Doha. It seems the focus of the market is on macroeconomics this week, as the Jackson Hole gathering of the Fed will hopefully give clues to the extremely hands-off crude market.
