Bloomberg survey of crude oil price forecasts
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The recent futures rally did not garner a significant increase in CTA net positions with the bullish momentum short-lived. Net positions peaked at -108k lots, which was lower than the previous peak of -74k lots on 16 Aug. Both increases began from -150k lots. For the individual products, RBOB futures is the most bearish at -32.9k lots, while WTI futures is the least bearish at -16.9k lots.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Jakarta, August 30, 2024 – Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Onyx Capital Group to develop new energy products. The new futures contracts will be jointly designed and managed. The MOU signing ceremony took place
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Total net positioning fell to its lows on 7 August down to -150k lots which was the lowest level since the beginning of June, during the post-OPEC meeting sell-off. With sentiment improving and bearish positioning becoming overcrowded, net positioning has rebounded since, rising to -113k lots by 12 August.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
22 August 2024: 16:30 BST Vitol made Equinor’s dreams come true in the North Sea, with the Nordics finally selling a Sep 11-13 JohanSverdrup at Dated -95c. They’ve been trying to shift the medium sour for days. One could say
22 August 2024: 09:30 BST Vitol doesn’t just set the floor in Dubai; they lift it. The Dubai physical premium (Physical minus M+2) rose 5cto 87c, while the Dubai physical discount relative to October Brent futures continued to narrow from-$1.86/bbl
21 August 2024: 16:30 BST In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
21 August 2024: 09:30 BST In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Total net positioning fell to its lows on 7 August down to -150k lots which was the lowest level since the beginning of June, during the post-OPEC meeting sell-off. With sentiment improving and bearish positioning becoming overcrowded, net positioning has rebounded since, rising to -113k lots by 12 August.
Long Sep 3.5 barges cracks With less volumes of HSFO coming into Northwest Europe from the US, the recent tightness has seen prices rise. We are following the trend with this trade.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
We have two trade ideas today: Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges We have observed 3 consecutive days of strong physical windows and barged being better bid, trading from $6.75/mt up to $10/mt. We believe that barges will finish the week strong,
Short Oct/Nov 0.5 sing We have been seeing some selling in the front of the sing LSFO. The low appetite from China is reflected in July’s crude throughput, which has fallen to a 21-month low. The RSI indicate overbought with
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Long Oct/Nov 380 Oil stocks in Fujairah have dropped to a 10-month low. Plus demand falling after peak summer power generation for air conditioning. Oct/Nov price has fallen from $8.75 a few days ago and this trade suggestion is to
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
This report covers services and manufacturing PMI across the G20 countries
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
Short Sep 0.5% Sing Crack -The Asian LSFO has seen strength in the last few days with above average bunkering activity. However we have observed that Al-Zour refinery exports are expecting to increase with summer power generation demand typically cooling
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Total net positioning fell to its lows on 7 August down to -150k lots which was the lowest level since the beginning of June, during the post-OPEC meeting sell-off. With sentiment improving and bearish positioning becoming overcrowded, net positioning has rebounded since, rising to -113k lots by 12 August.
Long sep dfl After weakening down to lows of around -13c yesterday, we think there is opportunity to look to fade the weakness and take a small long position today on the sep dfl Short Sep 380 crack After seeing
Total net positioning declined for a fourth consecutive week, falling deeper into negative territory from -74k to -126k lots as the net positioning in all listed futures ploughs further negative.
Long Sep/Oct 3.5% Barge On Friday we saw Sep/Oct hit the lowest price it has been since January this year. Looking at the Onyx CoT data the RSI has crept into the oversold territory at 33.
Welcome to our Live Blog of what is driving oil and other markets throughout the day. If you hear otherwise, let us know at insight@onyxcapitaladvisory.com
Traders were hoping for a quiet day going into the weekend but instead they got a comatose or nearly dead oil
market. At 15:00 BST Nov Brent stood at a consolidated $73.40/bbl, slightly above its level at yesterday’s close.
Then, however, markets went into freefall. Within the hour, Brent had toppled down by almost $2/bbl, to around
$71.50/bbl. Disastrous Canadian PMIs? Americans selling off? Or just the dour macros weighing down
everyone’s souls? And then in come the Saudis, slashing their monthly OSPs across the board for October
against the preceding month’s differentials. All grades into the Med and Northwest Europe received 80c cuts. In Asia, Arab Light and Medium took a 70c and 80c hits respectively, while Heavy was slapped with a full $1 cut.
Ennui is such a good word to describe the feeling sparked by the dated Brent market. Finally, things start to calm down and go into a reasonable direction where weakness or strength is reflected across all instruments. Equinor continues to increase the profile of Johan Sverdrup like they have bigger plans for the crude stream and sold a cargo loading Oct 1-3 to BP at Dated flat. A boring price but we like boring.
Ennui is such a good word to describe the feeling sparked by the dated Brent market. Finally, things start to calm down and go into a reasonable direction where weakness or strength is reflected across all instruments. Equinor continues to increase the profile of Johan Sverdrup like they have bigger plans for the crude stream and sold a cargo loading Oct 1-3 to BP at Dated flat. A boring price but we like boring.
Dubai’s physical premium has averaged $2.01/bbl so far in September, compared to the 90c in the full month of August. On a flat price basis, the market flatlined today. There’s still a lot of danger for the longs if the right noises are not made by OPEC and friends. OPEC’s life support isn’t working, with Dubai partials gaining 2c and front-month Brent futures losing the same, down at near 14-month lows. Despite some chaotic news announcements about OPEC quotas, Kennie and other long trades have never woken up from their comatose state.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Bad macros finally killed those with narrow focus on supply disruption stories in the face of continuing
loadings and also those believing fantastic stories of demand growth in the 2 mil bbl range.
Hello, wake up everybody; the world economy is soft and you know it, you read it everyday, you see it, you
feel it. You just want to believe your own story or that being fed by producers. What do you expect? That a
producer or group of producers, or long traders are going to tell you the demand growth isn’t there?
Dubai’s surge relative to Brent marches onward. Dubai partials minus front month Brent futures inverted,
going positive for the first time since 10 July, at 9c by the close of Asia today, while on a physical premium
basis, Dubai remains elevated at 2 bucks. While Brent futures spreads and CFDs get hammered in Europe,
Dubai’s prompt structure remains strong, and Dubai continues to outperform. The window was quiet, and
traders were tentative following the overall downward flat price correction. But Vitol and Mets still picked up
some partials from PC and Exxon. Anybody with a sense of end-user demand should sell, of course.
We said yesterday that the market really wanted to go up, regardless of fundamentals. Seems like bulls were too attached to Libya or to some fluffy nonsense as Libyans really need the money and so they’ll find a way to accommodate and keep the cash flowing. Remember technicals are noise but macros always win in the end and macros are super bearish – we say this with in situ reporting from China.
Dubai surged relative to Brent, closing the spread. China is widely seen as underperforming but the weak
picture as we enter the fall is not translating into softer Asian benchmarks. Dubai is the outperformer so far in
September. The prompt weakness in the Dubai we saw throughout the back end of August has been left in
dust after expiration. Vitol continued to bid and are seen as winning with Dubai physical premia rising to over
two bucks in the first two trading days of September.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in naphtha, LPG and crude oil. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The $80/bbl Battleground – Front-month ICE Brent futures moved sideways during August, unable to break out of a circa $76-83/bbl range. Geopolitical swell-ups and weak economic news, raising concern over oil demand, notably out of China, took turns pushing the flat price, respectively, up and down. Neither driver got the upper hand to set Brent on a new trajectory, with Brent’s price generally reverting towards $80/bbl. Even as Jerome Powell…
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
The Nov’24 Brent futures contract began strong last week, reaching $80.15/bbl on 26 Aug amid thin liquidity from players exiting for the bank holiday in the UK. This strength was also attributed to supply outages in Libya.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Money managers were more bullish in the crude futures benchmarks in the week ending 27 August. In both Brent and WTI futures we saw an addition of long positions and a liquidation of short positions. Bullish sentiment was boosted in crude futures as investors became more sanguine about economic growth prospects following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, as he hinted towards the beginning of a rate easing cycle from the next meeting in September. Moreover, supply disruption concerns mounted as Libya’s eastern-based government announced the closure of all oil fields which halted production and exports.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Boom! Brent flat price blazed a trail back up from the meagre sub $79/bbl handle it had been holding since yesterday evening to bound up to the $80/bbl level with a huge jump through the afternoon. But almost as quickly as it rose up, it got smacked back down again by almost 90c. According to a trader Brent “basically gapped down on nothing” and was “just following spreads”. The longs who took their winnings beforehand will be feeling pretty pleased with their afternoons and get a cosy night’s sleep on a big pillow of bank notes.
Yesterday Vatman and Gobin were firmly in control but today the story was different. Almost all of the Dubai
Duo’s hard work yesterday was erased at the close of Asia on a premium basis. Relative to other benchmark
grades, Dubai got slammed, with October Brent futures premium over Dubai physical cargoes widening by
88c to $1.79. On a physical premium basis, compared to yesterday, the longs were hammered, with Dubai
partials premium minus Oct swaps falling by almost 50c to $1.17. It lost almost all it gained yesterday.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The sucker went down. We are talking about the flat price, as Brent flat price shed almost $2.50/bbl against yesterday. But in Dubai is a completely different story. The longs are winning on a premium basis.
27 August 2024: 16:30 BST Having surged upwards yesterday morning on the weekend’s bullish geopolitical news, Brent stagnated around the $81/bbl mark today before sliding to around $79.60/bbl by 18:00 BST in a sell-off after market close. “They’re keeping the
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Dated Brent, Gasoil and Naphtha. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
27 August 2024: 09:30 BST Flat price Dubai underperforms while Brent gets a boost. There are many reasons why: sources reconfirmedthat Libya shut off its crude production. 1mb/d of light sweet crude off the market plus the gold Power Powelldusted
The bullish sentiment in crude was short-lived as money managers reverted to getting shorter in the crude futures benchmarks in the week ending 20 August. Sentiment in crude futures has become increasingly bearish on a combination of factors. The geopolitical risk premium has evaporated as markets react to positive progress towards a ceasefire deal between Israel-Hamas, whilst assessing no imminent threat to oil production, transportation, and infrastructure in the region. China’s economic troubles have played a significant role, with both OPEC and the IEA revising down their global oil demand growth projections, citing the impact of a weakened economy on oil consumption.
Last week, Brent futures slipped in the first half of the week and the market priced in an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which did not materialise. Prices were then supported as the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole some dovish hope into the market. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the need to support a strong labour market and acknowledged the unmistakable cooling in labour conditions.
26 August 2024: 09:30 BST Vitol and Gunvor had a tougher window today, “Trafigura sells to” was the theme. But the flat price soaredregardless, but the real action was in Brent. Any price seemed right to sell to, and Trafigura
23 August 2024: 16:30 BST Oh, what good weekends are made of! Gold, money or oil, or stock markets everywhere!!! All went up. Thepower of the FED. Power Powell, we mere mortals, dare we christen you as Midas? We genuflect
23 August 2024: 09:30 BST Dynamic duo Vitol and Gunvor’s avid purchasing is having a discernible impact on the physical premiumswhich have now risen to $1.12/bbl, the highest level of the month. The aggressive bidding has boostedphysical premiums by 25cts
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Sing fuel oil and NWE gasoline.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Last week, the Oct’24 Brent futures failed to hold strength after the highs of $82.50/bbl on 14 Aug was not maintained as the geopolitical risk emanating from the Middle East has become somewhat normalised as Iran’s retaliation continues to brew amid ceasefire negotiations in Doha. It seems the focus of the market is on macroeconomics this week, as the Jackson Hole gathering of the Fed will hopefully give clues to the extremely hands-off crude market.