The Feb’25 Brent Futures contract experienced a weaker morning session, trading down from around $74.20/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $73.94/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing) as traders take profit and await the Fed’s interest rate decision, with market expectations of a 25bp cut. In headlines Libya’s largest refinery, Zawiya (120 kb/d capacity), suffered fires over the weekend caused by gunfire during armed clashes, prompting the NOC to declare force majeure on Sunday. While the fires were controlled by Monday, the force majeure remains in place amid urges for the government to end clashes to prevent further damage and potential loss of life. This incident underscores ongoing risks to Libya’s oil industry, despite recent production gains, with output reaching 1.59 mb/d in October after resolving earlier political disputes and blockades. In other news, China’s refined oil consumption peaked in 2023 at 399 million metric tons (approximately 8 mb/d) and is projected to decline by 1.3% in 2024, according to CNPC’s Economics & Technology Research Institute. This decline is largely attributed to the rapid expansion of the EV sector, with forecasts suggesting that by 2035, EVs will make up half of the country’s car fleet, alongside increasing adoption of alternative fuels for trucks. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.68/bbl, respectively.
