Happy Thanksgiving! As American liquidity dries up in favour of stuffed turkeys, OPEC+ knows what it is not thankful for: the situation they’ve been placed in vis-à-vis bringing their crude oil barrels back into the market. Brent has been fixated on ranges established in September, save for a brief period of strength amid heightened Iranian-Israeli tensions in October. The war in the Middle East continues to be tumultuous, with this week simultaneously recording a long-awaited ceasefire in Lebanon alongside a subsequent firing as Israeli officials claim Hezbollah violated its agreements. Elsewhere and also keeping a floor on oil prices, Putin has threatened Kyiv with new ballistic missile strikes in response to Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia with Western weapons. However, economic data continues to be unsatisfactory (or even downright poor) in several parts of the world, dampening oil demand. In addition, despite expectations that the Fed will likely cut its Fed funds rate by 25 bps in its next FOMC meeting, the question on everyone’s mind (considering the explosion of Google searches about this on Monday) is who exactly will end up paying for Donald Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Crude imports from the two nations account for 25% of oil refined in the US, leading to fears of rising gasoline prices for consumers, which may weigh poorly on demand. Amid such uncertainty in the market, OPEC+ has postponed its meeting until 05 Dec, perhaps to define a more concrete timeline (if one exists) to bring its supply back into the market without causing a crash into the $60s.
