16 October 2024: 16:30 BST
The North Sea was brutal today. The Dated Donkey got killed and went subterranean. In yet another instance of Dated Brent and components acting wildly this year, Forties traded below the zero line, after bidding went as high as +$2.20 in early August. The instrument needs a proper think-through before too many producers and consumers buffeted by the volatility shout out words starting with F or M, which we could take for Fiddling and Manipulation. Maybe there are other nouns. Diffs got smashed as Shell kept offering a mid-Nov Forties down to -5c below Dated. It dangled for a while before Glencore lifted it. They had to think before going for the bargain. The differential collapse contrasted with a Brent flat price that only moved upwards by 25c. There was one other trade in the window: Equinor lifted an early Nov CIF Ekofisk at +$1.55 over Dated from BP. What’s driving Shell to send the physical diff down? We don’t know, but it worked!
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