The Dec ’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a strong afternoon, recording a 2.5% increase to $80.80/bbl between 14:00 BST and 17:00 BST before softening a little to $80.70/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing). The benchmark crude futures contract continues to be driven by fears of regional escalation in the Middle East and a potential disruption to Iran’s oil supplies. Iran’s oil minister visited the nation’s main export terminal on Kharg Island with a naval commander on Sunday to address these concerns, as per the Iranian oil ministry’s news website Shana. In other news, Ukraine’s military reported that it carried out a strike on the Feodosia terminal, the largest oil-processing facility in the occupied Crimean Peninsula. Russian officials in Crimea have not confirmed this strike but have acknowledged a fire at the terminal and declared a municipal-level emergency in its aftermath. India’s oil demand contracted for a second consecutive month, falling by 1.6% y/y in Sep ’24 to 17.92 million tonnes. In macroeconomic news, Goldman Sachs decreased the odds of the USA slipping into a recession over the following 12 months by 5% to 15% following the stronger-than-expected NFP report published last Friday. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan ’25 and Dec/Jun ’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $2.68/bbl, respectively.
