2 October 2024: 16:30 BST
The market is on tenterhooks running up or down with the latest rumours. Everyone’s holding their breath after yesterday. Brent held firm in the mid-70s range throughout the day after yesterday’s Middle Eastern confrontations, on the expectation Israel would retaliate and fears the conflict could escalate even further, although Brent eventually loosened marginally to close at $73.83/bbl. This geopolitical risk premium now seems to be baked into the price and will likely remain until Israel fires and we get to reevaluate positions., Should direct war break out between Israel and Iran, some have posited that Iran’s key oil export hub, Kharg Island, could be attacked, which would disrupt around 90% of the country’s crude exports. This could also endanger the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain etc sail… Essentially, oil flow would imperilled for everyone in the area. Strangely, most big guys The Officials’ met in Fujairah are strikingly resigned to a bear market. 60s, if not 50s, hung in the air. Annual growth may not be more than 600 kb/d and if Saudi Arabia pumps the volume 😵 then it is a good fight!
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