The October Brent futures flat price accelerated its rally on Monday afternoon, cruising past $81/bbl and trading at $81.18/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Price action has extended last week’s gains, with US recession fears easing and Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, and potentially supported by short covering flows. The market awaits response, while on Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region following Ukraine’s incursion into sovereign Russian territory. In OPEC’s August MOMR, it has lowered its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 135kb/d to 2.1 mb/d. The revision reflects softening expectations for China’s oil demand growth. It also lowered its 2025 global demand growth forecast by 65kb/d to 1.78mb/d. Canada’s biggest gas driller Tourmaline agreed to buy Crew Energy for C$1.3 billion ($947 million), including debt, as consolidation continues in the oil and gas industry. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.87/bbl and $3.18/bbl respectively.
