Reports

Nov’24 Brent futures flat price took a steep decline this afternoon, pricing around $72.70/bbl at 12:00 BST followed by a high of $73.50/bbl at 14:50 BST before plummeting to $70.82/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Iran’s crude oil exports were reduced to around 3.3 mb/d last month in compliance with OPEC+ supply restrictions, compared to an output of 3.48 mb/d in July. The Iraqi oil ministry has said the country will maintain a reduced level of oil exports in coming months, according to Reuters. In other news, state-owned Saudi Aramco lowered the OSP of its Arab Light crude for buyers in Asia by 70 cents to $1.30/bbl, according to a price list by Bloomberg. Finally, Nigeria’s new upstream deal with Italian energy major Eni plans to boost its production output to 2 mb/d by the end of 2024, Nigeria’s Minister of State Petroleum Resources said. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $0.88/bbl, respectively.

Nov’24 Brent futures flat price shot up this afternoon from $73.25/bbl at 12:00 BST to a high of $74.14/bbl around 15:45BST, followed by a sharp descent down to $72.53/bbl at 17:15 BST, before rebounding back to $73/bbl around 17:30 BST(time of writing). The sell-off in oil price comes after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) published their weeklyreport, stating a commercial crude inventory decline of 6.9 mb for the week to August 30, which was lower than APIestimates of 7.4 mb. In other news, China’s oil demand is growing at the slowest pace in the last 15 years with a decline of-2% YTD (excluding the COVID downturn), analysts at Bernstein said today. The drop in demand refl ects a wider slowdownin the Chinese economy with a lagging industrial sector, reduced property investment and consumer spending. Lastly, theKashagan oil fi eld in Kazakhstan is scheduled to be shut down for 4 weeks in October this year for maintenance. Inresponse, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry has sent a request to shareholders in the Kashagan oilfi eld to delay maintenance,citing gas shortages. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreadsare at $0.40/bbl and $1.35/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, Nov’24 Brent futures flat price showed steep downward movement from $74.50/bbl at 12:00 BST down to $73.19/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing), spiking briefly to $74.05/bbl around 15:45 BST. In the news today, engineers at Libya’s Brega port are reported to have seen a 600,000-barrel oil tanker loading, according to Reuters. This latest development comes despite the recent blockade on Libyan oil exports authorized by the eastern government. In other news, in Colombia, protests against increases in the price of diesel are threatening fuel supplies and state oil company operations at Ecopetrol. The protestors are utilising tactics such as roadblocks and attacking the Cano Limon-Covenas and Bicentario pipelines. Lastly, Spain’s crude oil imports from Venezuela have increased greatly since 2023, with new data published by Reuters today. Spain has imported a total of 1.7 million tons between January-July 2024, compared to a total of 1.4 million tons in 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.