Dated v Brent:
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Edge Updates

Dated Brent Report – Trump: The Arb of the Deal

There was an election across the pond last week, but it would be quite a feat of mental gymnastics to immediately connect the results with the Dated Brent market. Yet, the ramifications of Trump's re-election may have significant implications for Atlantic Basin fundamentals, as we detail in today's Onyx Alpha trade ideas report. Maybe not quite 'drill baby drill', but ongoing growth in US crude production and exports will likely weigh on the WTI/Brent spread, and further weigh on the Dated Brent physical. But in the meantime, the market continues to be topsy turvy. A US physical player has been eager to lock in this arb and fixing their paper deals ahead of time. The HTT (WTI Houston vs WTI Trade Month) has been locked in, alongside the WTI/Brent and freight. Basis risk remains, so we can expect 2025 DFLs to be sold at anytime to complete this process. Indeed, the arb of the deal. Lock in.

Dated Brent Report – Strength in Chaos

The Brent futures market was taut in anticipation and volatility last week as the leak of intelligence about the, at the time, looming Israeli strike on Iran meant that the waiting game would have to continue, and there were fewer clues. The front spreads have been rangebound over the fortnight, and the DFL market has superseded this, allowing for the Dated-to-Lead (DFL vs Brent spreads) structure to swing up. The question for spreads is whether they see the support from the Dated structure ripple through the DTL reverting, or whether the anticipated heavy pressure in the futures structure will strike through the structural integrity of the curve. The physical differential dropped to around 5c on 17 Oct and has gently been implied higher since.

The Officials: Please, sir, can I have some more?

10h ago
In the North Sea window today, Totsa just couldn’t help itself. Just one more… and again it’s Unipec facilitating, as in the Dubai window. France ...

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COT Report: To Buy or not to Buy

11h ago
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

European Window: Brent Futures Fall to $72.90/bbl

11h ago
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon after initial strength, moving from $73.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.93/bbl at 14:00 GMT, before falling to $72.90/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fell to the $73/bbl support level just after 15:30 GMT today amid the release of EIA data, which showed a build of 545kb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, Ukraine has fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia, a day after using the US ATACMS, as per Reuters. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote ...

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Inches Up To $73.50/bbl

18h ago
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract rose this morning from $73.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to a high of $73.92/bbl at 09:20 GMT, before falling back down to $73.50/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). This morning, a Reuters report citing Kpler vessel-tracking data showed that China’s crude imports are on track to end November at or close to record highs, however, no exact figure was specified. Meanwhile, markets forecast a 0.8mb in US crude oil inventories, with EIA data due to be released at 15:30 GMT today for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, around 10,900 North ...

Dated Brent Supplementary Report – Out-Dated Strength

2d ago
Over the past week, the Dated Brent market has been undoubtedly bullish as physical differentials rose from 34c on 11 Nov to 110c on 18 Nov. There has been strong bidding in the physical windows with Petroineos a big bidder last week; Total was also big on the buy side. Today, I bought three grades; Trafi has been bidding here and there. On the sell-side, BP has been offering, and Unipec is also selling. There has been bidding for Midland and Forties at the front of the curve which has supported the diff. Midland has been offered further down the ...

European Window: Brent Strengthens To $73.35/bbl

2d ago
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon from $72.95/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.35/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude prices were volatile this afternoon, rising to $73.85/bbl at 15:25 GMT and steeply selling off to $72.85/bbl by 15:30 GMT, amid news that Iran agreed to stop producing near bomb-grade uranium, according to Bloomberg. Prices recovered amid ongoing concerns regarding North Sea production outages and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Russian crude oil shipments dipped to a two-month low in the four weeks to 17 November, as loading from Russia’s Western ports decreased, ...

Dubai Market Report – Funds Fiending Brent/Dubai

2d ago
November continues to be a lacklustre month in the Brent/Dubai complex as market participants gradually retreat and become more risk-off leading up to Christmas. Glance no further at open interest levels where market risk is focused in the front tenors (Nov’24, Dec’24, Jan’25), which have plateaued and declined recently. In contrast, open interest in the deferred contracts is roughly in line with their 5-year average. Reaction to fundamental news has been lacking, which has instead been focused on Brent. Perhaps some normality is much needed after a whirlwind couple of years.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Futures Weakens To $73.10/bbl

2d ago
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, decreasing from $73.35/bbl at 07:00 GMT to $72.70/bbl at 09:30 GMT, before recovering slightly to $73.10/bbl at 11:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices dipped this morning as Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a US ceasefire proposal, requiring Hezbollah to have no armed presence in the area between the Lebanese-Israeli border and the Litani River. Furthermore, production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup is back online after an onshore power outage, with Johan Sverdrup reportedly operating at two-thirds of its 755kb/d capacity, as per Reuters. In the news today, Ukraine carried ...

European Window: Brent Rises to $73.00/bbl

3d ago
The Jan'25 Brent Futures rallied this afternoon, rising from $71.44/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $73.27/bbl by 16:20 GMT before encountering resistance and retracing slightly to $73/bbl as of 17:15 GMT. In headlines, news of a power outage halting output at Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe’s largest, with a capacity of 750 kb/d has emerged, contributing to the rally in flat price. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose by 80 kb/d in September to 5.75 mb/d, the highest in three months, as direct crude burning for power generation fell sharply (-296 kb/d to 518 kb/d) with the end ...

Events

Nov 21, 2024
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Independent Storage
in 9h
Nov 27, 2024
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
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15:30 UTC+0
EIA Weekly Stats Release
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Nov 28, 2024
05:00 UTC+0:00
CME Holiday
in 7d
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Independent Storage
in 8d
Nov 29, 2024
05:00 UTC+0:00
19:30 UTC+0:00
Jan25 Brent Expiry
in 9d
Dec 4, 2024
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 14d
Dec 5, 2024
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Independent Storage
in 15d
Dec 10, 2024
05:00 UTC+0
EIA STEO
in 19d
Dec 11, 2024
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 21d
13:00 UTC+0
OPEC OMR
in 21d
15:30 UTC+0
EIA Weekly Stats Release
in 21d
Dec 12, 2024
12:00 UTC+0:00
Dec24 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 22d
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Independent Storage
in 22d