Edge Updates
Dated Brent Report – A (North) Sea of Bears
The water has been anything but calm here in the North Sea, with the Dated Brent complex surging up into October amid a more robust futures complex and supported physical differential.
Dated Brent Report – It’s choppy in the North Sea!
The North Sea is choppy as we enter October, and choppiness dominated the Dated Brent market this fortnight, with few signs of this ending. In the last report, the physical diff was strong above a dollar, with a Chinese bull play holding strength and bidding was seen in a few grades. 20 Sep seemed a turning point for the market with BP offering Brent, although PI lifted this. The following week (23-27 Sep) saw strong selling from the US, with Exxon offering Forties and ConocoPhillips offering Ekofisk, with Ekofisk key to setting the curve currently. This US offering helped the phys diff be implied at less than a dollar on 25 Sep and, combined with futures selling, Dated took a dive. In October, following a fairly weak expiry, there is decent strength held in the Dated complex, as PI flipped to selling the diff fell to 65c, where it has been implied steadily. The past few windows have been pretty quiet. PI has stopped its buying and US selling is quieter. The waters are choppy and not so busy.
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Dubai Market Report – High Risk, Low Liquidity
Brent/Dubai witnessed a turbulent week despite the quiet backdrop of Golden Week in China. The complex first saw support towards the end of September amid news of a long-awaited stimulus package announced by the People's Bank of China on 24 Sep....
Dubai Market Report – Chin-Agh!
It was a paradigm shift in the Brent/Dubai crude market as the orderly downtrend in Brent/Dubai gave way to a mighty rally on 26 August following Brent's rally on the Libyan supply disruption news. The Sep'24 Brent/Dubai widened from $0.30/bbl to highs of $0.90/bbl. Nonetheless, the complex is entering September pricing on a strong note, with the Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box suppressed below -$0.30/bbl. In contrast, outright prices in the deferred have returned to previous highs above $1/bbl.
The Officials: Whacky diffs!
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A Broker’s Take: Trade Idea
Onyx Alpha: Bear Necessities
