Feb’25 Brent futures failed to break through support at $72.00/bbl throughout this afternoon and rose to $73.00/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that potential G7 sanctions on Russia’s oil industry could destabilise global energy markets and prompt Russian countermeasures. Proposed measures include reducing the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $40/bbl or banning its transportation and insurance, though no decision has been finalised. According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, Russia increased oil exports to China by 1.65% year-on-year to 99 million tons from January to November, valued at ...

The front-month (Feb’25) Brent is on track for a weekly decline, as price action has fallen by 2% to $72.50/bbl by 13:30 GMT (time of writing). Various factors have pressured crude prices this week, including more hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve and worries about demand. In this review, we will discuss the following factors: While the Fed lowered interest rates by 25bps as was widely expected, it signalled a more hawkish outlook for 2025, which supported the dollar to its highest level in two years. Notably, Jerome Powell said policymakers can “be more cautious” about future rate adjustments. ...

Feb’25 Brent futures fell from $73.70/bbl at 13.30 GMT to $72.70/bbl at 17:00 GMT. A US government shutdown is looming as Congress scrambles to pass a stopgap bill, despite opposition from President-elect Donald Trump, according to Fox News. Economic data showed jobless claims dropped to 220,000 (below estimates) from 242,000 the previous week. US GDP saw annualised growth of 3.1% in Q3, and the Philadelphia Fed survey plunged to -16.4, compared to the predicted +3.0. BP and Iraq have agreed on key technical terms for redeveloping Kirkuk's oil and gas fields, which still contain billions of barrels of recoverable oil. ...

The Feb Brent Futures contract has seen mixed price action this afternoon, trading up to a high of $74.12 at 16:10 GMT before retracing to $73.61/bbl where it sits at the time of writing, as EIA data highlighted that crude inventories fell by 934kb to 421mb in the week, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6mb draw. In headlines, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to a three-month high in October, reaching 5.92 mb/d, up 174 kb/d from September, according to JODI data. Despite the increase in exports, crude production slightly declined to 8.972 mb/d as ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

The Feb’25 Brent futures flat price came off from the $73.20/bbl handle on Tuesday afternoon. Price action fell to lows of $72.50/bbl before recovering to $72.88/bbl by 17:20 GMT (time of writing). In the headlines, the UK imposed new sanctions on two oil trading firms, 2Rivers DMCC and 2Rivers Pte Ltd, and 20 shadow fleet vessels to curb Russian oil revenues and disrupt its illicit oil trade. Oil has washed ashore tens of kilometres of Russia’s Black Sea coast after two aging tankers were damaged in a storm, and now a third tanker has issued a distress signal, heightening fears ...

Brent/Dubai has continued its downward grind, with the M1 contract falling to its lowest level since July. The Jan'25 contract reached lows of $0.10/bbl on 17 Dec, while the entire forward curve has shifted lower in an orderly fashion. The contango in the Brent/Dubai boxes is very orderly, without any kinks on the curve (see appendix). The medium sour crude market has continued to tighten as OPEC+ delayed their output hikes to Q2'25. Despite buying some time and supporting flat prices, our global crude balance suggests a bearish picture for 2025, with OPEC+ possibly needing to defer their output hikes ...

December has continued to see strong buying in the physical windows from a range of players, with 34 convergences so far in December. The main seller so far this month has been Equinor. Totsa has been a keen buyer of WTI Midland and has bought 18 cargoes out of the total number this month. There has been heavier selling in the past few days in the financial contracts, and there has been better selling interest and better selling in the new year weeks from trade players.